[3Commas] Alligator StrategyThe Alligator Strategy
🔷 What it does: This script implements the Alligator Strategy, a trend-following method created by Bill Williams. It uses three customizable moving averages (SMMAs or RMAs) "Jaws," "Teeth," and "Lips" to identify market trends and potential trade opportunities. Additionally, it includes built-in stop-loss and take-profit options for enhanced risk management.
🔷 Who is it for:
Trend Traders: Those who prefer trading in markets with clear directional movement.
Advanced Users: Traders who require customizable tools and dynamic risk management features.
Beginners: Accessible to those new to trading, thanks to its intuitive visual representation of trends and pre-configured settings.
Bot Users: Supports direct signal integration for bot automation, including entries, take-profits, and stop-losses.
🔷 How does it work: The Alligator Jaws, Teeth, and Lips are smoothed moving averages (SMA, EMA, RMA, or WMA) calculated based on the selected source price ( hl2 = (high+low)/2 by default). Their lengths and offsets are customizable:
Jaws: Length 21 , offset 13.
Teeth: Length 13, offset 8.
Lips: Length 8 , offset 5.
When the lines align and spread apart (e.g., Lips > Teeth > Jaws for an uptrend), the strategy identifies a trending market.
Entry Conditions:
Long Trades: Triggered when Close > Lips > Teeth > Jaws.
Short Trades: Triggered when Close < Lips < Teeth < Jaws.
🔷 Why it’s unique:
Customization: Flexible settings for moving average types and lengths to adapt to different market conditions and strategy tester configurations.
Built-in Filters: Trend filters that can reduce false signals in certain scenarios, making it more reliable for trending markets.
Take Profit and Stop Loss:
Configurable as either percentage-based or dynamic.
Stop-loss levels adjust dynamically using the Alligator lines.
Fast exit logic moves the stop-loss closer to the price when trades are in profit.
3Commas Bot Compatibility: Designed for automated trading, allowing traders to configure and execute the strategy seamlessly.
🔷 Considerations Before Using the Indicator
🔸Why the Forward Offset: By shifting the averages forward, the Alligator helps traders focus on established trends while filtering out short-term market noise.
The standard configurations of 13-8, 8-5, and 5-3 were selected based on Bill Williams’ studies of market behavior. However, these values can be adjusted to suit different market conditions:
Volatile Markets: Faster settings (e.g., 10-6, 6-4, 3-2) may provide earlier signals.
Less Volatile Markets: Slower settings (e.g., 21-13, 13-8, 8-5) can help avoid noise and reduce false signals.
🔸Best Timeframes to Use: The Alligator can be applied across all timeframes, but certain timeframes offer better reliability.
Higher Timeframes (H4, D1, W1): Ideal for identifying significant trends and for swing or position trading.
Lower Timeframes: Not recommended due to increased noise but may work for scalping with additional confirmation tools.
🔸Disadvantages of the Alligator Strategy:
Exhausted Entry Levels: High buying levels or low selling levels can lead to momentum exhaustion and potential pullbacks.
False Signals in Ranges: Consolidating markets can produce unreliable signals.
Lagging Indicator: As it is based on moving averages, it may delay reacting to sudden price changes.
🔸Advantages of the Alligator Strategy:
Trend Focused: Simplifies the identification of trending markets.
Noise Reduction: Forward shifts and smoothed averages help filter out short-term price fluctuations.
Broad Applicability: Suitable for forex, crypto, stocks, and commodities.
🔸Important Considerations:
While the Alligator Strategy provides a systematic way to analyze markets, it does not guarantee successful outcomes. Results in trading depend on multiple factors, including market conditions, trader discipline, and risk management. Past performance of the strategy does not ensure future success, and traders should always approach the market with caution.
Risk Management: Define stop-loss levels, position size, and profit targets before entering any trade. Be prepared for the possibility of losses and ensure that your approach aligns with your overall trading plan.
🔷 STRATEGY PROPERTIES
Symbol: BINANCE:BTCUSDT (Spot).
Timeframe: 1D (Daily Timeframe).
Test Period: All historical data available.
Initial Capital: 10000 USDT.
Order Size per Trade: 1% of Capital, you can use a higher value e.g. 5%, be cautious that the Max Drawdown does not exceed 10%, as it would indicate a very risky trading approach.
Commission: Binance commission 0.1%, adjust according to the exchange being used, lower numbers will generate unrealistic results. By using low values e.g. 5%, it allows us to adapt over time and check the functioning of the strategy.
Slippage: 5 ticks, for pairs with low liquidity or very large orders, this number should be increased as the order may not be filled at the desired level.
Margin for Long and Short Positions: 100%.
Indicator Settings: Default Configuration.
Alligator: Source hl2 | Calculation RMA | Jaw 21-13, Teeth 13-8, Lips 8-5.
Strategy: Long & Short.
Max Stop Loss per Trade: 10% of Trade Size.
Exit trades on opposite signal: Enable.
Alligator Stop Loss: Enable.
Alligator Fast Exit: Enable.
🔷 STRATEGY RESULTS
⚠️ Remember, past results do not guarantee future performance.
Net Profit: +355.68 USDT (+3.56%).
Total Closed Trades: 103.
Percent Profitable: 47.57%.
Profit Factor: 1.927.
Max Drawdown: -57.99 USDT (-0.56%).
Average Trade: +3.45 USDT (+3.41%).
Average # Bars in Trades: 16.
🔷 HOW TO USE
🔸Adjust the Alligator Settings:
The default values generally work well: Source hl2 | Calculation RMA | Jaw 21-13, Teeth 13-8, Lips 8-5. However, if you want to use it on timeframes smaller than 4H (4 hours), consider increasing the values to better filter market noise.
Please review the "Indicator Settings" section for configuration.
🔸Choose a Symbol that Typically Trends:
Select an asset that tends to create trends. However, the Strategy Tester results may display poor performance, making it less suitable for sending signals to bots.
🔸Add Trend Filters:
You can enable trend filters like MA and SuperTrend. By default, these are disabled as they are often unnecessary, but you can experiment with their configuration to see if they optimize the strategy's results.
Please review the "Indicator Settings" section for configuration.
🔸Enable Stop Loss Levels:
Activate Stop Loss features, such as Stop Loss % or Alligator Stop Loss. If both are enabled, the one closest to the price during the trade will be applied.
Please review the "Indicator Settings" section for configuration.
🔸Enable Take Profit Levels:
Activate Take Profit options, such as Take Profit % or Alligator Fast Exit. If both are enabled, the one that triggers first will be executed.
Please review the "Indicator Settings" section for configuration.
This is an example with the default settings and how Alligator Stop Loss and Alligator Fast Exit are activated:
In this example, we additionally enable the Take Profit at 10%. We can observe that the Alligator Stop Loss is the active one since it is closer to the price. When the price moves 10% in favor or against the trade, the position is closed. Although the Alligator Fast Exit is enabled, it does not activate because the trades are closed beforehand.
🔸Results Review:
It is important to check the Max Drawdown. This value should ideally not exceed 10% of your capital. Consider adjusting the trade size to ensure this threshold is not surpassed.
Remember to include the correct values for commission and slippage according to the symbol and exchange where you are conducting the tests. Otherwise, the results will not be realistic.
If you are satisfied with the results, you may consider automating your trades. However, it is strongly recommended to use a small amount of capital or a demo account to test proper execution before committing real funds.
🔸Create alerts to trigger the DCA Bot
Verify Messages: Ensure the message matches the one specified by the DCA Bot.
Multi-Pair Configuration: For multi-pair setups, enable the option to add the symbol in the correct format.
Signal Settings: Enable whether you want to receive long or short signals (Entry | TP | SL), copy and paste the the messages for the DCA Bots configured in 3Commas.
Alert Setup:
When creating an alert, set the condition to the indicator and choose "alert() function call only.
Enter any desired Alert Name.
Open the Notifications tab, enable Webhook URL, and paste the Webhook URL from 3Commas.
For more details, refer to the 3Commas section: "How to use TradingView Custom Signals.
Finalize Alerts: Click Create, you're done! Alerts will now be sent automatically in the correct format to 3Commas.
🔷 INDICATOR SETTINGS
🔸Alligator Settings
MA's source: Source price for Alligator moving averages.
MA's Type: Type of calculation for MA's.
Jaw and Offset: Jaw length and offset to the right.
Teeth and Offset: Teethlength and offset to the right.
Lips and Offset: Lips length and offset to the right.
🔸Alligator Style
Plot Alligator: Show Alligator Ribbon.
Plot MA's: Show Alligator MA's.
Colors: Main and Gradient Colors for Bullish Alligator, Berish Alligator, Neutral Alligator. For gradient colors it is recommended to use an opacity of 15.
🔸MA & SuperTrend Filters
MA & Plot: Activate MA Filter and Plot MA on the chart.
Long Entries: When activated, it will only execute entries if the price is above the MA
Short Entries: When activated, it will only execute entries if the price is below the MA.
Source: Source price for moving average calculations.
Length: Candles to be used by the MA calculations.
Type: Type of calculation for MA.
Timeframe: Here you can select a larger timeframe for the filter.
ST & Plot: Activate SuperTrend Filter and Plot SuperTrend on the chart.
Long Entries: When activated, it will only execute entries if the price is above the SuperTrend.
Short Entries: When activated, it will only execute entries if the price is below the SuperTrend.
Source: Source price for SuperTrend calculations.
Length: Candles to be used by the SuperTrend calculations.
Factor: ATR multiplier of the SuperTrend.
Timeframe: Here you can select a larger timeframe for the filter.
🔸Strategy Tester
Strategy: Order Type direction in which trades are executed.
Take Profit %: When activated, the entered value will be used as the Take Profit in percentage from the entry price level.
Stop Loss %: When activated, the entered value will be used as the Stop Loss in percentage from the entry price level. If Alligator Stop Loss is activated, the closest one to the price will be used.
Exit trades on opposite signal: This option closes the trade if the opposite condition is met. For instance, if we are in a long position and a sell signal is triggered, the long position will be closed, and a short position will be opened. The same applies inversely.
Alligator Stop Loss: In a long trade, the lower part of the Alligator indicator will be used as a dynamic stop loss. Similarly, in a short trade, the upper part of the indicator will be used.
Alligator Fast Exit: Its purpose is to attempt to protect movements in favor of the trade's direction. In the case of long trades, once the price and the upper part of the Alligator indicator are above the trade's entry price, the stop loss will be moved to the upper part. For short trades, once the price and the lower part of the Alligator indicator are below the trade's entry price, the stop loss will be moved to the lower part of the Alligator indicator.
Alligator Squeeze Entry: When activated, entries will only be executed if they meet the condition after a neutral zone of the Alligator indicator.
Alligator Squeeze Exit: When this option is activated, any open trades will be closed when the Alligator indicator enters a neutral mode.
Use Custom Test Period: When enabled signals only works in the selected time window. If disabled it will use all historical data available on the chart.
Test Start and End: Once the Custom Test Period is enabled, here you select the start and end date that you want to analyze.
🔸3Commas DCA Bot Signals
Check Messages: Enable the table to review the messages to be sent to the bot.
Entry | TP | SL: Enable this options to send Buy Entry, Take Profit (TP), and Stop Loss (SL) signals to 3Commas.
Deal Entry and Deal Exit : Copy and paste the message for the deal start signal and close order at Market Price of the DCA Bot you created in 3Commas. This is the message that will be sent with the alert to the Bot, you must verify that it is the same as the 3Commas bot so that it can process properly so that it executes and starts the trade.
DCA Bot Multi-Pair: You must activate it if you want to use the signals in a DCA Bot Multi-pair in the text box you must enter (using the 3Commas format) the symbol in which you are creating the alert, you can check the format of each symbol when you create the bot.
🔷 CONCLUSION
The Alligator Strategy is a valuable tool for identifying potential trends and improving decision-making. However, no trading strategy is foolproof. Careful consideration of market conditions, proper risk management, and personal trading goals are essential. Use the Alligator as part of a broader trading system, and remember that consistent learning and discipline are key to success in trading.
👨🏻💻💭 We hope this tool helps enhance your trading. Your feedback is invaluable, so feel free to share any suggestions for improvements or new features you'd like to see implemented.
____________________________________________________________________
The information and publications within the 3Commas TradingView account are not meant to be and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by 3Commas and any of the parties acting on behalf of 3Commas, including its employees, contractors, ambassadors, etc.
Tìm kiếm tập lệnh với "the strat"
Smart DCA Invest LiteEnglish description:
📊 Smart DCA Invest – Features Overview
✅ Automated DCA strategy with dynamic profit targets, optimized risk management.
⚙️ Functionality:
🕒 Time Interval Settings
• 📅 Start Date and Time: The strategy activates only after the specified start time.
• 🔄 Auto Restart: Automatically restarts the strategy after a position is closed.
💵 Investment Amounts
• 🟢 Initial Investment Amount: The amount invested when the first position is opened.
• 🔄 Recurring Investment Amount: The amount invested periodically for subsequent purchases.
📊 Purchase Frequency
• ⏱ Interval Between Purchases: Specifies the minimum number of candles between two purchases to avoid overly frequent position expansions.
🛡️ Risk Management
• 📉 Loss Limit: The strategy halts additional purchases if the price does not drop below a predefined loss level, optimizing the average cost reduction.
• 🎯 Take Profit: A predefined profit target percentage, triggering position closure upon reaching it.
📈 Dynamic Take Profit (TP) Settings
• ⏳ TP Increase Frequency: The interval in days for dynamic TP growth.
• 📊 TP Growth Rate: The percentage by which the TP level increases at the end of each interval.
• ⚙️ Enable Dynamic TP: Allows the TP level to increase dynamically over time based on holding duration.
• 🧠 Smart Invest: Accumulates skipped purchases above the average entry or loss limit price and invests them when the price drops below the loss limit.
🎨 Visual Representation
• 📏 Average Price Line: Displays the average entry price in yellow.
• 🛑 Stop Limit Line: Displays the loss limit in red.
• ✅ Take Profit Line: Displays the dynamically updated profit target in green.
🎨 Visual Elements
• 📏 Average Price Line: Visualizes the average cost on the chart.
• 🛑 Stop Limit Line: Visualizes the loss limit level.
• ✅ Take Profit Line: Displays the TP level graphically.
• 📊 Statistics Table: Detailed data summary presented in a table at the end of the strategy.
📊 Statistics Table
• 📈 Average Price: The average entry price of the current position.
• 🛑 Stop Limit: The loss limit value.
• ✅ Take Profit: The profit target value.
• 📦 Position Size: The size of the current position.
• 💵 Max Invested Amount: The highest amount invested.
• ⏳ Longest DCA Period: The longest duration a DCA position was open.
• 💼 Current Investment: The amount currently invested.
• 🔄 Multiplier: Purchase multiplier value.
• 📊 Dynamically Adjusted TP %: The current dynamic Take Profit percentage.
- Recommended for retesting
Hungarian description:
📊 Smart DCA Invest – Funkciók Leírása
✅ Automatizált DCA stratégia dinamikus profitcélokkal, optimalizált kockázatkezeléssel.
⚙️ Működés:
🕒 Időintervallum Beállítások
• 📅 Kezdési dátum és idő: A stratégia csak a meghatározott kezdési időpont után aktiválódik.
• ⏳ Befejezési dátum és idő: A stratégia a meghatározott időpontig működik.
• 🔄 Automatikus újraindítás: Pozíciózárás után a stratégia automatikusan újraindulhat.
💵 Befektetési Összegek
• 🟢 Első befektetési összeg: Az első pozíció nyitásakor befektetett összeg.
• 🔄 Napi vásárlási összeg: Ismételt periódusonkénti vásárlások összege.
📊 Vásárlási Gyakoriság
• ⏱ Intervallum két vásárlás között: Meghatározza a minimális gyertya intervallumot két vásárlás között, elkerülve a túl gyakori pozícióbővítéseket.
🛡️ Kockázatkezelés
• 📉 Loss Limit: Ha az ár nem csökken egy meghatározott veszteségi szint alá, a stratégia nem vásárol tovább, hogy hatékonyabban csökkentse az átlagárat.
• 🎯 Take Profit: Előre meghatározott profitcél százalékos értéke, amely elérésekor a pozíció lezárul.
📈 Dinamikus Take Profit (TP) Beállítások
• ⏳ TP növelési gyakoriság: A dinamikus TP növekedésének időszaka napokban.
• 📊 TP növekedés mértéke: A TP szint százalékos növekedése az intervallum végén.
• ⚙️ Dinamikus TP engedélyezése: A TP szint dinamikusan növekszik a tartási idő függvényében.
• 🧠 Smart Invest: Kihagyott vásárlások felhalmozása (átlagos bekerülési vagy „Loss limit” feletti árfolyamnál), amelyek a „Loss limit” árszint alatt befektetésre kerülnek.
🎨 Vizuális Megjelenítés
• 📏 Átlagár vonal: Sárga színnel jelzi az átlagárat.
• 🛑 Stop Limit vonal: Piros színnel jelzi a veszteségi korlátot.
• ✅ Take Profit vonal: Zöld színnel jelzi a dinamikusan frissülő profitcélt.
🎨 Vizuális Elemek
• 📏 Átlagár vonal: Az átlagár megjelenítése a grafikonon.
• 🛑 Stop Limit vonal: A veszteségkorlátozási szint megjelenítése.
• ✅ Take Profit vonal: A Take Profit szint grafikai megjelenítése.
• 📊 Statisztikai táblázat megjelenítése: A stratégia végén részletes adatok jelennek meg egy táblázatban.
📊 Statisztikai Táblázat
• 📈 Átlagár: Az aktuális pozíció átlagos bekerülési ára.
• 🛑 Stop Limit: A veszteségkorlátozási szint értéke.
• ✅ Take Profit: A profitcél értéke.
• 📦 Pozícióméret: Az aktuális pozíció nagysága.
• 💵 Maximális befektetett összeg: A legnagyobb befektetett érték.
• ⏳ Leghosszabb DCA időszak: A leghosszabb időtartam, amíg egy DCA pozíció nyitva maradt.
• 💼 Aktuális befektetés: Az aktuálisan befektetett összeg.
• 🔄 Multiplikátor: Vásárlási szorzó érték.
• 📊 Dinamikusan beállított TP %: Az aktuálisan érvényes Take Profit százalékos értéke.
Bullish Reversal Bar Strategy [Skyrexio]Overview
Bullish Reversal Bar Strategy leverages the combination of candlestick pattern Bullish Reversal Bar (description in Methodology and Justification of Methodology), Williams Alligator indicator and Williams Fractals to create the high probability setups. Candlestick pattern is used for the entering into trade, while the combination of Williams Alligator and Fractals is used for the trend approximation as close condition. Strategy uses only long trades.
Unique Features
No fixed stop-loss and take profit: Instead of fixed stop-loss level strategy utilizes technical condition obtained by Fractals and Alligator or the candlestick pattern invalidation to identify when current uptrend is likely to be over (more information in "Methodology" and "Justification of Methodology" paragraphs)
Configurable Trading Periods: Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Trend Trade Filter: strategy uses Alligator and Fractal combination as high probability trend filter.
Methodology
The strategy opens long trade when the following price met the conditions:
1.Current candle's high shall be below the Williams Alligator's lines (Jaw, Lips, Teeth)(all details in "Justification of Methodology" paragraph)
2.Price shall create the candlestick pattern "Bullish Reversal Bar". Optionally if MFI and AO filters are enabled current candle shall have the decreasing AO and at least one of three recent bars shall have the squat state on the MFI (all details in "Justification of Methodology" paragraph)
3.If price breaks through the high of the candle marked as the "Bullish Reversal Bar" the long trade is open at the price one tick above the candle's high
4.Initial stop loss is placed at the Bullish Reversal Bar's candle's low
5.If price hit the Bullish Reversal Bar's low before hitting the entry price potential trade is cancelled
6.If trade is active and initial stop loss has not been hit, trade is closed when the combination of Alligator and Williams Fractals shall consider current trend change from upward to downward.
Strategy settings
In the inputs window user can setup strategy setting:
Enable MFI (if true trades are filtered using Market Facilitation Index (MFI) condition all details in "Justification of Methodology" paragraph), by default = false)
Enable AO (if true trades are filtered using Awesome Oscillator (AO) condition all details in "Justification of Methodology" paragraph), by default = false)
Justification of Methodology
Let's explore the key concepts of this strategy and understand how they work together. The first and key concept is the Bullish Reversal Bar candlestick pattern. This is just the single bar pattern. The rules are simple:
Candle shall be closed in it's upper half
High of this candle shall be below all three Alligator's lines (Jaw, Lips, Teeth)
Next, let’s discuss the short-term trend filter, which combines the Williams Alligator and Williams Fractals. Williams Alligator
Developed by Bill Williams, the Alligator is a technical indicator that identifies trends and potential market reversals. It consists of three smoothed moving averages:
Jaw (Blue Line): The slowest of the three, based on a 13-period smoothed moving average shifted 8 bars ahead.
Teeth (Red Line): The medium-speed line, derived from an 8-period smoothed moving average shifted 5 bars forward.
Lips (Green Line): The fastest line, calculated using a 5-period smoothed moving average shifted 3 bars forward.
When the lines diverge and align in order, the "Alligator" is "awake," signaling a strong trend. When the lines overlap or intertwine, the "Alligator" is "asleep," indicating a range-bound or sideways market. This indicator helps traders determine when to enter or avoid trades.
Fractals, another tool by Bill Williams, help identify potential reversal points on a price chart. A fractal forms over at least five consecutive bars, with the middle bar showing either:
Up Fractal: Occurs when the middle bar has a higher high than the two preceding and two following bars, suggesting a potential downward reversal.
Down Fractal: Happens when the middle bar shows a lower low than the surrounding two bars, hinting at a possible upward reversal.
Traders often use fractals alongside other indicators to confirm trends or reversals, enhancing decision-making accuracy.
How do these tools work together in this strategy? Let’s consider an example of an uptrend.
When the price breaks above an up fractal, it signals a potential bullish trend. This occurs because the up fractal represents a shift in market behavior, where a temporary high was formed due to selling pressure. If the price revisits this level and breaks through, it suggests the market sentiment has turned bullish.
The breakout must occur above the Alligator’s teeth line to confirm the trend. A breakout below the teeth is considered invalid, and the downtrend might still persist. Conversely, in a downtrend, the same logic applies with down fractals.
How we can use all these indicators in this strategy? This strategy is a counter trend one. Candle's high shall be below all Alligator's lines. During this market stage the bullish reversal bar candlestick pattern shall be printed. This bar during the downtrend is a high probability setup for the potential reversal to the upside: bulls were able to close the price in the upper half of a candle. The breaking of its high is a high probability signal that trend change is confirmed and script opens long trade. If market continues going down and break down the bullish reversal bar's low potential trend change has been invalidated and strategy close long trade.
If market really reversed and started moving to the upside strategy waits for the trend change form the downtrend to the uptrend according to approximation of Alligator and Fractals combination. If this change happens strategy close the trade. This approach helps to stay in the long trade while the uptrend continuation is likely and close it if there is a high probability of the uptrend finish.
Optionally users can enable MFI and AO filters. First of all, let's briefly explain what are these two indicators. The Awesome Oscillator (AO), created by Bill Williams, is a momentum-based indicator that evaluates market momentum by comparing recent price activity to a broader historical context. It assists traders in identifying potential trend reversals and gauging trend strength.
AO = SMA5(Median Price) − SMA34(Median Price)
where:
Median Price = (High + Low) / 2
SMA5 = 5-period Simple Moving Average of the Median Price
SMA 34 = 34-period Simple Moving Average of the Median Price
This indicator is filtering signals in the following way: if current AO bar is decreasing this candle can be interpreted as a bullish reversal bar. This logic is applicable because initially this strategy is a trend reversal, it is searching for the high probability setup against the current trend. Decreasing AO is the additional high probability filter of a downtrend.
Let's briefly look what is MFI. The Market Facilitation Index (MFI) is a technical indicator that measures the price movement per unit of volume, helping traders gauge the efficiency of price movement in relation to trading volume. Here's how you can calculate it:
MFI = (High−Low)/Volume
MFI can be used in combination with volume, so we can divide 4 states. Bill Williams introduced these to help traders interpret the interaction between volume and price movement. Here’s a quick summary:
Green Window (Increased MFI & Increased Volume): Indicates strong momentum with both price and volume increasing. Often a sign of trend continuation, as both buying and selling interest are rising.
Fake Window (Increased MFI & Decreased Volume): Shows that price is moving but with lower volume, suggesting weak support for the trend. This can signal a potential end of the current trend.
Squat Window (Decreased MFI & Increased Volume): Shows high volume but little price movement, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This often precedes a breakout as the pressure builds.
Fade Window (Decreased MFI & Decreased Volume): Indicates a lack of interest from both buyers and sellers, leading to lower momentum. This typically happens in range-bound markets and may signal consolidation before a new move.
For our purposes we are interested in squat bars. This is the sign that volume cannot move the price easily. This type of bar increases the probability of trend reversal. In this indicator we added to enable the MFI filter of reversal bars. If potential reversal bar or two preceding bars have squat state this bar can be interpret as a reversal one.
Backtest Results
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2024.12.31. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 50%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -5.29%
Maximum Single Profit: +29.99%
Net Profit: +5472.66 USDT (+54.73%)
Total Trades: 103 (33.98% win rate)
Profit Factor: 1.634
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 1231.15 USDT (-8.32%)
Average Profit per Trade: 53.13 USDT (+0.94%)
Average Trade Duration: 76 hours
How to Use
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 4h ETH/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
Adaptive Momentum Reversion StrategyThe Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy: An Empirical Approach to Market Behavior
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy seeks to capitalize on market price dynamics by combining concepts from momentum and mean reversion theories. This hybrid approach leverages a Rate of Change (ROC) indicator along with Bollinger Bands to identify overbought and oversold conditions, triggering trades based on the crossing of specific thresholds. The strategy aims to detect momentum shifts and exploit price reversions to their mean.
Theoretical Framework
Momentum and Mean Reversion: Momentum trading assumes that assets with a recent history of strong performance will continue in that direction, while mean reversion suggests that assets tend to return to their historical average over time (Fama & French, 1988; Poterba & Summers, 1988). This strategy incorporates elements of both, looking for periods when momentum is either overextended (and likely to revert) or when the asset’s price is temporarily underpriced relative to its historical trend.
Rate of Change (ROC): The ROC is a straightforward momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price over a specified period (Wilder, 1978). The strategy calculates the ROC over a 2-period window, making it responsive to short-term price changes. By using ROC, the strategy aims to detect price acceleration and deceleration.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are used to identify volatility and potential price extremes, often signaling overbought or oversold conditions. The bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviation bounds that adjust dynamically with price volatility (Bollinger, 2002).
The strategy employs two sets of Bollinger Bands: one for short-term volatility (lower band) and another for longer-term trends (upper band), with different lengths and standard deviation multipliers.
Strategy Construction
Indicator Inputs:
ROC Period: The rate of change is computed over a 2-period window, which provides sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations.
Bollinger Bands:
Lower Band: Calculated with a 18-period length and a standard deviation of 1.7.
Upper Band: Calculated with a 21-period length and a standard deviation of 2.1.
Calculations:
ROC Calculation: The ROC is computed by comparing the current close price to the close price from rocPeriod days ago, expressing it as a percentage.
Bollinger Bands: The strategy calculates both upper and lower Bollinger Bands around the ROC, using a simple moving average as the central basis. The lower Bollinger Band is used as a reference for identifying potential long entry points when the ROC crosses above it, while the upper Bollinger Band serves as a reference for exits, when the ROC crosses below it.
Trading Conditions:
Long Entry: A long position is initiated when the ROC crosses above the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential shift from a period of low momentum to an increase in price movement.
Exit Condition: A position is closed when the ROC crosses under the upper Bollinger Band, or when the ROC drops below the lower band again, indicating a reversal or weakening of momentum.
Visual Indicators:
ROC Plot: The ROC is plotted as a line to visualize the momentum direction.
Bollinger Bands: The upper and lower bands, along with their basis (simple moving averages), are plotted to delineate the expected range for the ROC.
Background Color: To enhance decision-making, the strategy colors the background when extreme conditions are detected—green for oversold (ROC below the lower band) and red for overbought (ROC above the upper band), indicating potential reversal zones.
Strategy Performance Considerations
The use of Bollinger Bands in this strategy provides an adaptive framework that adjusts to changing market volatility. When volatility increases, the bands widen, allowing for larger price movements, while during quieter periods, the bands contract, reducing trade signals. This adaptiveness is critical in maintaining strategy effectiveness across different market conditions.
The strategy’s pyramiding setting is disabled (pyramiding=0), ensuring that only one position is taken at a time, which is a conservative risk management approach. Additionally, the strategy includes transaction costs and slippage parameters to account for real-world trading conditions.
Empirical Evidence and Relevance
The combination of momentum and mean reversion has been widely studied and shown to provide profitable opportunities under certain market conditions. Studies such as Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) confirm that momentum strategies tend to work well in trending markets, while mean reversion strategies have been effective during periods of high volatility or after sharp price movements (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By integrating both strategies into one system, the Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy may be able to capitalize on both trending and reverting market behavior.
Furthermore, research by Chan (1996) on momentum-based trading systems demonstrates that adaptive strategies, which adjust to changes in market volatility, often outperform static strategies, providing a compelling rationale for the use of Bollinger Bands in this context.
Conclusion
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy provides a robust framework for trading based on the dual concepts of momentum and mean reversion. By using ROC in combination with Bollinger Bands, the strategy is capable of identifying overbought and oversold conditions while adapting to changing market conditions. The use of adaptive indicators ensures that the strategy remains flexible and can perform across different market environments, potentially offering a competitive edge for traders who seek to balance risk and reward in their trading approaches.
References
Bollinger, J. (2002). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. McGraw-Hill Professional.
Chan, L. K. C. (1996). Momentum, Mean Reversion, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1681-1713.
De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), 246-273.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 27-59.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research.
XT Alert Builder - [CrossTrade]The XT Alert Builder is designed to work with CrossTrade and provide an easy way to create strategy entries from Indicator signal sources.
The {{strategy.order.alert_message}} variable along with your Secret Key will send CrossTrade compatible payloads for automated order execution in NinjaTrader 8.
SIGNAL SETTINGS
1. Determine your Entry Signal Source (indicator or OHLC) for both buy and sell signals independently. You can also elect to make the strategy unidirectional by unchecking one of the signal boxes.
2. Determine your Exit Signal Type. The default is Custom which means you're using some kind of input for this like an indicator. Optionally, you can select 'Session End' which will delay the strategy exit until the last bar of the session based n the Trading End Hour/Minute you set in your Trading Hours section.
3. Determine you Exit Sources for Buy and Sells. You can mix and match these inputs for ultimate customization of entries and exits - have fun!
The strategy will by default send a CLOSEPOSITION command to the instrument and account specified based on your Exit settings and time.
TRADING HOURS
Users can specify a trading session or time window to ensure signals only occur during desired hours. The Session End exit signal is based on this window.
NINJATRADER SETTINGS
1. Your NT8 Account. Separate multiple accounts by comma for multi-account placement.
2. Your preferred NT8 instrument in NT compatible format. (e.g. ES 03-25, ES MAR25)
3. Your preferred NT8 quantity
TRADE MANAGEMENT
We've provided both options, you can either use an ATM strategy template or stop loss and take profit levels. More info on Tick and Percentage based stops and targets.
Key Points for successful Trade Management settings application:
1. The ATM template name and qty must match what's saved on Ninja
2. You can choose either ticks or percentage based application - but not both.
3. The stops and target levels need to be offset based on the directional price scale. If you're buying then the stop requires a negative sign and vise versa for Sell orders.
Buy Example:
Take Profit = 50
Stop Loss = -20
CROSSTRADE ADVANCED OPTIONS
Features such as our Flatten first, Require Market Position, Delay Timer, Rate Limiting, and Max Position command enhancements have also been included. More info on these can be found in our Help Docs.
INSTUCTIONS FOR ALERT CREATION
Remove the default info provided by the strategy and then add your CrossTrade secret key and the dynamic strategy variable {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
For example:
Key=your-secret-key;
{{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Trade well,
- CrossTrade Team
three Supertrend EMA Strategy by Prasanna +DhanuThe indicator described in your Pine Script is a Supertrend EMA Strategy that combines the Supertrend and EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to create a trend-following strategy. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how this indicator works:
1. EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
The EMA is a moving average that places more weight on recent prices, making it more responsive to price changes compared to a simple moving average (SMA). In this strategy, the EMA is used to determine the overall trend direction.
Input Parameter:
ema_length: This is the period for the EMA, set to 50 periods by default. A shorter EMA will respond more quickly to price movements, while a longer EMA is smoother and less sensitive to short-term fluctuations.
How it's used:
If the price is above the EMA, it indicates an uptrend.
If the price is below the EMA, it indicates a downtrend.
2. Supertrend Indicator:
The Supertrend indicator is a trend-following tool based on the Average True Range (ATR), which is a volatility measure. It helps to identify the direction of the trend by setting a dynamic support or resistance level.
Input Parameters:
supertrend_atr_period: The period used for calculating the ATR, set to 10 periods by default.
supertrend_multiplier1: Multiplier for the first Supertrend, set to 3.0.
supertrend_multiplier2: Multiplier for the second Supertrend, set to 2.0.
supertrend_multiplier3: Multiplier for the third Supertrend, set to 1.0.
Each Supertrend line has a different multiplier, which affects its sensitivity to price changes. The ATR period defines how many periods of price data are used to calculate the ATR.
How the Supertrend works:
If the Supertrend value is below the price, the trend is considered bullish (uptrend).
If the Supertrend value is above the price, the trend is considered bearish (downtrend).
The Supertrend will switch between up and down based on price movement and ATR, providing a dynamic trend-following signal.
3. Three Supertrend Lines:
In this strategy, three Supertrend lines are calculated with different multipliers and the same ATR period (10 periods). Each line is more or less sensitive to price changes, and they are plotted on the chart in different colors based on whether the trend is bullish (green) or bearish (red).
Supertrend 1: The most sensitive Supertrend with a multiplier of 3.0.
Supertrend 2: A moderately sensitive Supertrend with a multiplier of 2.0.
Supertrend 3: The least sensitive Supertrend with a multiplier of 1.0.
Each Supertrend line signals a bullish trend when its value is below the price and a bearish trend when its value is above the price.
4. Strategy Rules:
This strategy uses the three Supertrend lines combined with the EMA to generate trade signals.
Entry Conditions:
A long entry is triggered when all three Supertrend lines are in an uptrend (i.e., all three Supertrend lines are below the price), and the price is above the EMA. This suggests a strong bullish market condition.
A short entry is triggered when all three Supertrend lines are in a downtrend (i.e., all three Supertrend lines are above the price), and the price is below the EMA. This suggests a strong bearish market condition.
Exit Conditions:
A long exit occurs when the third Supertrend (the least sensitive one) switches to a downtrend (i.e., the price falls below it).
A short exit occurs when the third Supertrend switches to an uptrend (i.e., the price rises above it).
5. Visualization:
The strategy also plots the following on the chart:
The EMA is plotted as a blue line, which helps identify the overall trend.
The three Supertrend lines are plotted with different colors:
Supertrend 1: Green (for uptrend) and Red (for downtrend).
Supertrend 2: Green (for uptrend) and Red (for downtrend).
Supertrend 3: Green (for uptrend) and Red (for downtrend).
Summary of the Strategy:
The strategy combines three Supertrend indicators (with different multipliers) and an EMA to capture both short-term and long-term trends.
Long positions are entered when all three Supertrend lines are bullish and the price is above the EMA.
Short positions are entered when all three Supertrend lines are bearish and the price is below the EMA.
Exits occur when the third Supertrend line (the least sensitive) signals a change in trend direction.
This combination of indicators allows for a robust trend-following strategy that adapts to both short-term volatility and long-term trend direction. The Supertrend lines provide quick reaction to price changes, while the EMA offers a smoother, more stable trend direction for confirmation.
The indicator described in your Pine Script is a Supertrend EMA Strategy that combines the Supertrend and EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to create a trend-following strategy. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how this indicator works:
1. EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
The EMA is a moving average that places more weight on recent prices, making it more responsive to price changes compared to a simple moving average (SMA). In this strategy, the EMA is used to determine the overall trend direction.
Input Parameter:
ema_length: This is the period for the EMA, set to 50 periods by default. A shorter EMA will respond more quickly to price movements, while a longer EMA is smoother and less sensitive to short-term fluctuations.
How it's used:
If the price is above the EMA, it indicates an uptrend.
If the price is below the EMA, it indicates a downtrend.
2. Supertrend Indicator:
The Supertrend indicator is a trend-following tool based on the Average True Range (ATR), which is a volatility measure. It helps to identify the direction of the trend by setting a dynamic support or resistance level.
Input Parameters:
supertrend_atr_period: The period used for calculating the ATR, set to 10 periods by default.
supertrend_multiplier1: Multiplier for the first Supertrend, set to 3.0.
supertrend_multiplier2: Multiplier for the second Supertrend, set to 2.0.
supertrend_multiplier3: Multiplier for the third Supertrend, set to 1.0.
Each Supertrend line has a different multiplier, which affects its sensitivity to price changes. The ATR period defines how many periods of price data are used to calculate the ATR.
How the Supertrend works:
If the Supertrend value is below the price, the trend is considered bullish (uptrend).
If the Supertrend value is above the price, the trend is considered bearish (downtrend).
The Supertrend will switch between up and down based on price movement and ATR, providing a dynamic trend-following signal.
3. Three Supertrend Lines:
In this strategy, three Supertrend lines are calculated with different multipliers and the same ATR period (10 periods). Each line is more or less sensitive to price changes, and they are plotted on the chart in different colors based on whether the trend is bullish (green) or bearish (red).
Supertrend 1: The most sensitive Supertrend with a multiplier of 3.0.
Supertrend 2: A moderately sensitive Supertrend with a multiplier of 2.0.
Supertrend 3: The least sensitive Supertrend with a multiplier of 1.0.
Each Supertrend line signals a bullish trend when its value is below the price and a bearish trend when its value is above the price.
4. Strategy Rules:
This strategy uses the three Supertrend lines combined with the EMA to generate trade signals.
Entry Conditions:
A long entry is triggered when all three Supertrend lines are in an uptrend (i.e., all three Supertrend lines are below the price), and the price is above the EMA. This suggests a strong bullish market condition.
A short entry is triggered when all three Supertrend lines are in a downtrend (i.e., all three Supertrend lines are above the price), and the price is below the EMA. This suggests a strong bearish market condition.
Exit Conditions:
A long exit occurs when the third Supertrend (the least sensitive one) switches to a downtrend (i.e., the price falls below it).
A short exit occurs when the third Supertrend switches to an uptrend (i.e., the price rises above it).
5. Visualization:
The strategy also plots the following on the chart:
The EMA is plotted as a blue line, which helps identify the overall trend.
The three Supertrend lines are plotted with different colors:
Supertrend 1: Green (for uptrend) and Red (for downtrend).
Supertrend 2: Green (for uptrend) and Red (for downtrend).
Supertrend 3: Green (for uptrend) and Red (for downtrend).
Summary of the Strategy:
The strategy combines three Supertrend indicators (with different multipliers) and an EMA to capture both short-term and long-term trends.
Long positions are entered when all three Supertrend lines are bullish and the price is above the EMA.
Short positions are entered when all three Supertrend lines are bearish and the price is below the EMA.
Exits occur when the third Supertrend line (the least sensitive) signals a change in trend direction.
This combination of indicators allows for a robust trend-following strategy that adapts to both short-term volatility and long-term trend direction. The Supertrend lines provide quick reaction to price changes, while the EMA offers a smoother, more stable trend direction for confirmation.
The indicator described in your Pine Script is a Supertrend EMA Strategy that combines the Supertrend and EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to create a trend-following strategy. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how this indicator works:
1. EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
The EMA is a moving average that places more weight on recent prices, making it more responsive to price changes compared to a simple moving average (SMA). In this strategy, the EMA is used to determine the overall trend direction.
Input Parameter:
ema_length: This is the period for the EMA, set to 50 periods by default. A shorter EMA will respond more quickly to price movements, while a longer EMA is smoother and less sensitive to short-term fluctuations.
How it's used:
If the price is above the EMA, it indicates an uptrend.
If the price is below the EMA, it indicates a downtrend.
2. Supertrend Indicator:
The Supertrend indicator is a trend-following tool based on the Average True Range (ATR), which is a volatility measure. It helps to identify the direction of the trend by setting a dynamic support or resistance level.
Input Parameters:
supertrend_atr_period: The period used for calculating the ATR, set to 10 periods by default.
supertrend_multiplier1: Multiplier for the first Supertrend, set to 3.0.
supertrend_multiplier2: Multiplier for the second Supertrend, set to 2.0.
supertrend_multiplier3: Multiplier for the third Supertrend, set to 1.0.
Each Supertrend line has a different multiplier, which affects its sensitivity to price changes. The ATR period defines how many periods of price data are used to calculate the ATR.
How the Supertrend works:
If the Supertrend value is below the price, the trend is considered bullish (uptrend).
If the Supertrend value is above the price, the trend is considered bearish (downtrend).
The Supertrend will switch between up and down based on price movement and ATR, providing a dynamic trend-following signal.
3. Three Supertrend Lines:
In this strategy, three Supertrend lines are calculated with different multipliers and the same ATR period (10 periods). Each line is more or less sensitive to price changes, and they are plotted on the chart in different colors based on whether the trend is bullish (green) or bearish (red).
Supertrend 1: The most sensitive Supertrend with a multiplier of 3.0.
Supertrend 2: A moderately sensitive Supertrend with a multiplier of 2.0.
Supertrend 3: The least sensitive Supertrend with a multiplier of 1.0.
Each Supertrend line signals a bullish trend when its value is below the price and a bearish trend when its value is above the price.
4. Strategy Rules:
This strategy uses the three Supertrend lines combined with the EMA to generate trade signals.
Entry Conditions:
A long entry is triggered when all three Supertrend lines are in an uptrend (i.e., all three Supertrend lines are below the price), and the price is above the EMA. This suggests a strong bullish market condition.
A short entry is triggered when all three Supertrend lines are in a downtrend (i.e., all three Supertrend lines are above the price), and the price is below the EMA. This suggests a strong bearish market condition.
Exit Conditions:
A long exit occurs when the third Supertrend (the least sensitive one) switches to a downtrend (i.e., the price falls below it).
A short exit occurs when the third Supertrend switches to an uptrend (i.e., the price rises above it).
5. Visualization:
The strategy also plots the following on the chart:
The EMA is plotted as a blue line, which helps identify the overall trend.
The three Supertrend lines are plotted with different colors:
Supertrend 1: Green (for uptrend) and Red (for downtrend).
Supertrend 2: Green (for uptrend) and Red (for downtrend).
Supertrend 3: Green (for uptrend) and Red (for downtrend).
Summary of the Strategy:
The strategy combines three Supertrend indicators (with different multipliers) and an EMA to capture both short-term and long-term trends.
Long positions are entered when all three Supertrend lines are bullish and the price is above the EMA.
Short positions are entered when all three Supertrend lines are bearish and the price is below the EMA.
Exits occur when the third Supertrend line (the least sensitive) signals a change in trend direction.
This combination of indicators allows for a robust trend-following strategy that adapts to both short-term volatility and long-term trend direction. The Supertrend lines provide quick reaction to price changes, while the EMA offers a smoother, more stable trend direction for confirmation.
Custom Strategy: ETH Martingale 2.0Strategic characteristics
ETH Little Martin 2.0 is a self-developed trading strategy based on the Martingale strategy, mainly used for trading ETH (Ethereum). The core idea of this strategy is to place orders in the same direction at a fixed price interval, and then use Martin's multiple investment principle to reduce losses, but this is also the main source of losses.
Parameter description:
1 Interval： The minimum spacing for taking profit, stop loss, and opening/closing of orders. Different targets have different spacing. Taking ETH as an example, it is generally recommended to have a spacing of 2% for fluctuations in the target.
2 Base Price： This is the price at which you triggered the first order. Similarly, I am using ETH as an example. If you have other targets, I suggest using the initial value of a price that can be backtesting. The Base Price is only an initial order price and has no impact on subsequent orders.
3 Initial Order Amount： Users can set an initial order amount to control the risk of each transaction. If the stop loss is reached, we will double the amount based on this value. This refers to the value of the position held, not the number of positions held.
4 Loss Multiplier： The strategy will increase the next order amount based on the set multiple after the stop loss, in order to make up for the previous losses through a larger position. Note that after taking profit, it will be reset to 1 times the Initial Order Amount.
5. Long Short Operation: The first order of the strategy is a multiple entry, and in subsequent orders, if the stop loss is reached, a reverse order will be opened. The position value of a one-way order is based on the Loss Multiplier multiple investment, so it is generally recommended that the Loss Multiplier default to 2.
Improvement direction
Although this strategy already has a certain trading logic, there are still some improvement directions that can be considered:
1. Dynamic adjustment of spacing: Currently, the spacing is fixed, and it can be considered to dynamically adjust the spacing based on market volatility to improve the adaptability of the strategy. Try using dynamic spacing, which may be more suitable for the actual market situation.
2. Filtering criteria: Orders and no orders can be optimized separately. The biggest problem with this strategy is that it will result in continuous losses during fluctuations, and eventually increase the investment amount. You can consider filtering out some fluctuations or only focusing on trend trends.
3. Risk management: Add more risk management measures, such as setting a maximum loss limit to avoid huge losses caused by continuous stop loss.
4. Optimize the stop loss multiple: Currently, the stop loss multiple is fixed, and it can be considered to dynamically adjust the multiple according to market conditions to reduce risk.
Liquid Pours XtremeStrategy Description: Liquid Pours Xtreme
The Liquid Pours Xtreme is an innovative trading strategy that combines the analysis of specific time-based patterns with price comparisons to identify potential opportunities in the forex market. Designed for traders seeking a structured methodology based on clear rules, this strategy offers integration with Telegram for real-time alerts and provides visual tools to enhance trade management.
Key Features:
Analysis of Specific Time Patterns: The strategy captures and compares closing prices at two key moments during the trading day, identifying recurring patterns that may indicate future market movements.
Dynamic SL and TP Levels Implementation: Utilizes tick-based calculations to set Stop-Loss and Take-Profit levels, adapting to the current market volatility.
Advanced Telegram Integration: Provides detailed alerts including information such as the asset, signal time, entry price, and SL/TP levels, facilitating real-time decision-making.
Complete Customization: Allows users to adjust key parameters, including operation schedules, weekdays, and visual settings, adapting to different trading styles.
Enhanced Chart Visualization: Includes visual elements like candle color changes based on signal state, event markers, and halos to highlight important moments.
Default Strategy Properties: Specific configuration for optimal risk management and simulation.
How the Strategy Works
Capturing Prices at Key Moments:
- The strategy records the closing price at two user-defined specific times. These times typically correspond to periods of high market volatility, such as the opening of the European session and the US pre-market.
- Rationale: Volatility and trading volume usually increase during these times, presenting opportunities for significant price movements.
Generating Signals Based on Price Comparison:
- Buy Signal: If the second closing price is lower than the first, it indicates possible accumulation and is interpreted as a bullish signal.
- Sell Signal: If the second closing price is higher than the first, it suggests possible distribution and is interpreted as a bearish signal.
- Signals are only generated on selected trading days, allowing you to avoid days with lower liquidity or higher risk.
Calculating Dynamic SL and TP Levels:
- Stop-Loss (SL) and Take-Profit (TP) levels are calculated based on the entry price and a user-defined number of ticks, adapting to market volatility.
- The strategy offers the option to base these levels on the close of the signal candle or the open of the next candle, providing flexibility according to the trader's preference.
- SL and TP boxes are drawn on the chart for visual reference, facilitating trade management.
Automatic Execution and Alerts:
- Upon signal generation, the strategy automatically executes a market order (buy or sell).
- Sends a detailed alert to your Telegram channel, including essential information for quick decision-making.
Visual Elements:
- Colors candles based on the signal state: buy, sell, or neutral, allowing for quick trend identification.
- Provides a smooth color transition between signal states and uses markers and halos to highlight important events and signals on the chart.
Trade Management:
- Manages open trades with automatic exit conditions based on the established SL and TP levels.
- Includes mechanisms to prevent exceeding TradingView's limitations on boxes and labels, ensuring optimal script performance.
Originality and utility:
- This strategy incorporates a unique approach focusing on specific time patterns and their relationship to institutional activity in the market.
How to Use the Strategy
Add the Script to the Chart:
- Go to the indicators menu in TradingView.
- Search for " Liquid Pours Xtreme " and add it to your chart.
Set Up Telegram Alerts:
- Enter your Telegram Chat ID in the script parameters to receive alerts.
- Customize the Buy and Sell alert messages as desired.
Configure Time Patterns:
- Set the hours and minutes for the two times you want to compare closing prices, aligning them with relevant market sessions or events.
Set SL and TP Parameters:
- Define the number of ticks for the Stop-Loss and Take-Profit levels, adapting them to the asset you're trading and your risk tolerance.
- Choose the basis for SL and TP calculation (close of the signal candle or open of the next candle).
Select Trading Days:
- Enable or disable trading on specific days of the week, allowing you to avoid days with lower activity or unexpected volatility.
Customize Visual Elements:
- Adjust the colors and styles of visual elements to enhance readability and suit your personal preferences.
Monitor the Strategy:
- Observe the chart for signals and use Telegram alerts to stay informed of new opportunities, even when you're not at your terminal.
Testing and Optimization:
- Use TradingView's backtesting features to evaluate the historical performance of the strategy with different parameters.
- Adjust and optimize the parameters based on the results and your own analysis.
Adjust the Strategy Properties:
- Ensure that the strategy properties (order size, commission, slippage) are aligned with your trading account and platform to obtain realistic results.
Strategy Properties (Important)
This script backtest is conducted on M30 EURUSD , using the following backtesting properties:
Initial Capital: $10,000
Order Size: 50,000 Contracts (equivalent to 0.5% of the capital)
Commission: $0.20 per order
Slippage: 1 tick
Pyramiding: 1 order
Verify Price for Limit Orders: 0 ticks
Recalculate on Order Execution: Enabled
Recalculate on Every Tick: Enabled
Recalculate After Order Filled: Enabled
Bar Magnifier for Backtesting Precision: Enabled
We use these properties to ensure a realistic preview of the backtesting system. Note that default properties may vary for different reasons:
- Order Size: It is essential to calculate the contract size according to the traded asset and desired risk level.
- Commission and Slippage: These costs can vary depending on the market and instrument; there is no default value that might return realistic results.
We strongly recommend all users adjust the Properties within the script settings to align with their accounts and trading platforms to ensure the results from the strategies are realistic.
Backtesting Results:
- Net Profit: $4,037.50 (40.37%)
- Total Closed Trades : 292
- Profitability Percentage: 26.71%
- Profit Factor: 1.369
- Max Drawdown: $769.30 (6.28%)
- Average Trade: $13.83 (0.03%)
- Average Bars in Trades: 11
These results were obtained under the mentioned conditions and properties, providing an overview of the strategy's historical performance.
Interpreting Results:
- The strategy has demonstrated profitability in the analyzed period, although with a win rate of 26.71%, indicating that success relies on a favorable risk-reward ratio.
- The profit factor of 1.369 suggests that total gains exceed total losses by that proportion.
- It is crucial to consider the maximum drawdown of 6.28% when evaluating the strategy's suitability to your risk tolerance.
Risk Warning:
Trading leveraged financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. It is essential to conduct additional testing and adjust the strategy according to your needs.
---
What Makes This Strategy Original?
Time-Based Pattern Approach: Unlike conventional strategies, this strategy focuses on identifying time patterns that reflect institutional activity and macroeconomic events that can influence the market.
Advanced Technological Integration: The combination of automatic execution and customized alerts via Telegram provides an efficient and modern tool for active traders.
Customization and Adaptability: The wide range of adjustable parameters allows the strategy to be tailored to different assets, time zones, and trading styles.
Enhanced Visual Tools: Incorporated visual elements facilitate quick market interpretation and informed decision-making.
Additional Considerations
Continuous Testing and Optimization: Users are encouraged to perform additional backtesting and optimize parameters according to their own observations and requirements.
Complementary Analysis: Use this strategy in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to reinforce decision-making.
Rigorous Risk Management: Ensure that SL and TP levels, as well as position sizing, align with your risk management plan.
Updates and Support: I am committed to providing updates and improvements based on community feedback. For inquiries or suggestions, feel free to contact me.
---
Example Configuration
Assuming you want to use the strategy with the following parameters:
Telegram Chat ID: Your unique Telegram Chat ID
First Time (Hour:Minute): 6:30
Second Time (Hour:Minute): 7:30
SL Ticks: 100
TP Ticks: 400
SL and TP Basis: Close of the Signal Candle
Trading Days: Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday
Simulated Initial Capital: $10,000
Risk per Trade in Simulation: $50 (-0.5% of capital)
Slippage and Commissions in Simulation: 1 tick of slippage and $0.20 commission per trade
---
Conclusion
The Liquid Pours Xtreme strategy offers an innovative approach by combining specific time analysis with robust risk management and modern technological tools. Its original and adaptable design makes it valuable for traders looking to diversify their methods and capitalize on opportunities based on less conventional patterns.
Ready for immediate implementation in TradingView, this strategy can enrich your trading arsenal and contribute to a more informed and structured approach to your operations.
---
Final Disclaimer:
Financial markets are volatile and can present significant risks. This strategy should be used as part of a comprehensive trading approach and does not guarantee positive results. It is always advisable to consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
---
Bollinger Breakout Strategy with Direction Control [4H crypto]Bollinger Breakout Strategy with Direction Control - User Guide
This strategy leverages Bollinger Bands, RSI, and directional filters to identify potential breakout trading opportunities. It is designed for traders looking to capitalize on significant price movements while maintaining control over trade direction (long, short, or both). Here’s how to use this strategy effectively:
How the Strategy Works
Indicators Used:
Bollinger Bands:
A volatility-based indicator with an upper and lower band around a simple moving average (SMA). The bands expand or contract based on market volatility.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Measures momentum to determine overbought or oversold conditions. In this strategy, RSI is used to confirm breakout strength.
Trade Direction Control:
You can select whether to trade:
Long only: Buy positions.
Short only: Sell positions.
Both: Trade in both directions depending on conditions.
Breakout Conditions:
Long Trade:
The price closes above the upper Bollinger Band.
RSI is above the midline (50), confirming upward momentum.
The "Trade Direction" setting allows either "Long" or "Both."
Short Trade:
The price closes below the lower Bollinger Band.
RSI is below the midline (50), confirming downward momentum.
The "Trade Direction" setting allows either "Short" or "Both."
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss:
Long trades: Set at 2% below the entry price.
Short trades: Set at 2% above the entry price.
Take-Profit:
Calculated using a Risk/Reward Ratio (default is 2:1).
Adjust this in the strategy settings.
Inputs and Customization
Key Parameters:
Bollinger Bands Length: Default is 20. Adjust based on the desired sensitivity.
Multiplier: Default is 2.0. Higher values widen the bands; lower values narrow them.
RSI Length: Default is 14, which is standard for RSI.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Default is 2.0. Increase for more aggressive profit targets, decrease for conservative exits.
Trade Direction:
Options: "Long," "Short," or "Both."
Example: Set to "Long" in a bullish market to focus only on buy trades.
How to Use This Strategy
Adding the Strategy:
Paste the script into TradingView’s Pine Editor and add it to your chart.
Setting Parameters:
Adjust the Bollinger Band settings, RSI, and Risk/Reward Ratio to fit the asset and timeframe you're trading.
Analyzing Signals:
Green line (Upper Band): Signals breakout potential for long trades.
Red line (Lower Band): Signals breakout potential for short trades.
Blue line (Basis): Central Bollinger Band (SMA), helpful for understanding price trends.
Testing the Strategy:
Use the Strategy Tester in TradingView to backtest performance on your chosen asset and timeframe.
Optimizing for Assets:
Forex pairs, cryptocurrencies (like BTC), or stocks with high volatility are ideal for this strategy.
Works best on higher timeframes like 4H or Daily.
Best Practices
Combine with Volume: Confirm breakouts with increased volume for higher reliability.
Avoid Sideways Markets: Use additional trend filters (like ADX) to avoid trades in low-volatility conditions.
Optimize Parameters: Regularly adjust the Bollinger Bands multiplier and RSI settings to match the asset's behavior.
By utilizing this strategy, you can effectively trade breakouts while maintaining flexibility in trade direction. Adjust the parameters to match your trading style and market conditions for optimal results!
Triple CCI Strategy MFI Confirmed [Skyrexio]Overview
Triple CCI Strategy MFI Confirmed leverages 3 different periods Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicator in conjunction Money Flow Index (MFI) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to obtain the high probability setups. Fast period CCI is used for having the high probability to enter in the direction of short term trend, middle and slow period CCI are used for confirmation, if market now likely in the mid and long-term uptrend. MFI is used to confirm trade with the money inflow/outflow with the high probability. EMA is used as an additional trend filter. Moreover, strategy uses exponential moving average (EMA) to trail the price when it reaches the specific level. More information in "Methodology" and "Justification of Methodology" paragraphs. The strategy opens only long trades.
Unique Features
Dynamic stop-loss system: Instead of fixed stop-loss level strategy utilizes average true range (ATR) multiplied by user given number subtracted from the position entry price as a dynamic stop loss level.
Configurable Trading Periods: Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Four layers trade filtering system: Strategy utilizes two different period CCI indicators, MFI and EMA indicators to confirm the signals produced by fast period CCI.
Trailing take profit level: After reaching the trailing profit activation level scrip activate the trailing of long trade using EMA. More information in methodology.
Methodology
The strategy opens long trade when the following price met the conditions:
Fast period CCI shall crossover the zero-line.
Slow and Middle period CCI shall be above zero-lines.
Price shall close above the EMA. Crossover is not obligatory
MFI shall be above 50
When long trade is executed, strategy set the stop-loss level at the price ATR multiplied by user-given value below the entry price. This level is recalculated on every next candle close, adjusting to the current market volatility.
At the same time strategy set up the trailing stop validation level. When the price crosses the level equals entry price plus ATR multiplied by user-given value script starts to trail the price with EMA. If price closes below EMA long trade is closed. When the trailing starts, script prints the label “Trailing Activated”.
Strategy settings
In the inputs window user can setup the following strategy settings:
ATR Stop Loss (by default = 1.75)
ATR Trailing Profit Activation Level (by default = 2.25)
CCI Fast Length (by default = 14, used for calculation short term period CCI)
CCI Middle Length (by default = 25, used for calculation short term period CCI)
CCI Slow Length (by default = 50, used for calculation long term period CCI)
MFI Length (by default = 14, used for calculation MFI
EMA Length (by default = 50, period of EMA, used for trend filtering EMA calculation)
Trailing EMA Length (by default = 20)
User can choose the optimal parameters during backtesting on certain price chart.
Justification of Methodology
Before understanding why this particular combination of indicator has been chosen let's briefly explain what is CCI, MFI and EMA.
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a momentum-based technical indicator that measures the deviation of a security's price from its average price over a specific period. It helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions and potential trend reversals.
The CCI formula is:
CCI = (Typical Price − SMA) / (0.015 × Mean Deviation)
Typical Price (TP): This is calculated as the average of the high, low, and closing prices for the period.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): This is the average of the Typical Prices over a specific number of periods.
Mean Deviation: This is the average of the absolute differences between the Typical Price and the SMA.
The result is a value that typically fluctuates between +100 and -100, though it is not bounded and can go higher or lower depending on the price movement.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a technical indicator that measures the strength of money flowing into and out of a security. It combines price and volume data to assess buying and selling pressure and is often used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. The formula for MFI involves several steps:
1. Calculate the Typical Price (TP):
TP = (high + low + close) / 3
2. Calculate the Raw Money Flow (RMF):
Raw Money Flow = TP × Volume
3. Determine Positive and Negative Money Flow:
If the current TP is greater than the previous TP, it's Positive Money Flow.
If the current TP is less than the previous TP, it's Negative Money Flow.
4. Calculate the Money Flow Ratio (MFR):
Money Flow Ratio = Sum of Positive Money Flow (over n periods) / Sum of Negative Money Flow (over n periods)
5. Calculate the Money Flow Index (MFI):
MFI = 100 − (100 / (1 + Money Flow Ratio))
MFI above 80 can be considered as overbought, below 20 - oversold.
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a type of moving average that places greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. It is widely used in technical analysis to smooth price data and identify trends more quickly than the Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Formula:
1. Calculate the multiplier
Multiplier = 2 / (n + 1) , Where n is the number of periods.
2. EMA Calculation
EMA = (Current Price) × Multiplier + (Previous EMA) × (1 − Multiplier)
This strategy leverages Fast period CCI, which shall break the zero line to the upside to say that probability of short term trend change to the upside increased. This zero line crossover shall be confirmed by the Middle and Slow periods CCI Indicators. At the moment of breakout these two CCIs shall be above 0, indicating that there is a high probability that price is in middle and long term uptrend. This approach increases chances to have a long trade setup in the direction of mid-term and long-term trends when the short-term trend starts to reverse to the upside.
Additionally strategy uses MFI to have a greater probability that fast CCI breakout is confirmed by this indicator. We consider the values of MFI above 50 as a higher probability that trend change from downtrend to the uptrend is real. Script opens long trades only if MFI is above 50. As you already know from the MFI description, it incorporates volume in its calculation, therefore we have another one confirmation factor.
Finally, strategy uses EMA an additional trend filter. It allows to open long trades only if price close above EMA (by default 50 period). It increases the probability of taking long trades only in the direction of the trend.
ATR is used to adjust the strategy risk management to the current market volatility. If volatility is low, we don’t need the large stop loss to understand the there is a high probability that we made a mistake opening the trade. User can setup the settings ATR Stop Loss and ATR Trailing Profit Activation Level to realize his own risk to reward preferences, but the unique feature of a strategy is that after reaching trailing profit activation level strategy is trying to follow the trend until it is likely to be finished instead of using fixed risk management settings. It allows sometimes to be involved in the large movements. It’s also important to make a note, that script uses another one EMA (by default = 20 period) as a trailing profit level.
Backtest Results
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2022.04.01 - 2024.11.25. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 50%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -4.13%
Maximum Single Profit: +19.66%
Net Profit: +5421.21 USDT (+54.21%)
Total Trades: 108 (44.44% win rate)
Profit Factor: 2.006
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 777.40 USDT (-7.77%)
Average Profit per Trade: 50.20 USDT (+0.85%)
Average Trade Duration: 44 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
How to Use
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 2h BTC/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation
Dual Strategy Selector V2 - CryptogyaniOverview:
This script provides traders with a dual-strategy system that they can toggle between using a simple dropdown menu in the input settings. It is designed to cater to different trading styles and needs, offering both simplicity and advanced filtering techniques. The strategies are built around moving average crossovers, enhanced by configurable risk management tools like take profit levels, trailing stops, and ATR-based stop-loss.
Key Features:
Two Strategies in One Script:
Strategy 1: A classic moving average crossover strategy for identifying entry signals based on trend reversals. Includes user-defined take profit and trailing stop-loss options for profit locking.
Strategy 2: An advanced trend-following system that incorporates:
A higher timeframe trend filter to confirm entry signals.
ATR-based stop-loss for dynamic risk management.
Configurable partial take profit to secure gains while letting the trade run.
Highly Customizable:
All key parameters such as SMA lengths, take profit levels, ATR multiplier, and timeframe for the trend filter are adjustable via the input settings.
Dynamic Toggle:
Traders can switch between Strategy 1 and Strategy 2 with a single dropdown, allowing them to adapt the strategy to market conditions.
How It Works:
Strategy 1:
Entry Logic: A long trade is triggered when the fast SMA crosses above the slow SMA.
Exit Logic: The trade exits at either a user-defined take profit level (percentage or pips) or via an optional trailing stop that dynamically adjusts based on price movement.
Strategy 2:
Entry Logic: Builds on the SMA crossover logic but adds a higher timeframe trend filter to align trades with the broader market direction.
Risk Management:
ATR-Based Stop-Loss: Protects against adverse moves with a volatility-adjusted stop-loss.
Partial Take Profit: Allows traders to secure a percentage of gains while keeping some exposure for extended trends.
How to Use:
Select Your Strategy:
Use the dropdown in the input settings to choose Strategy 1 or Strategy 2.
Configure Parameters:
Adjust SMA lengths, take profit, and risk management settings to align with your trading style.
For Strategy 2, specify the higher timeframe for trend filtering.
Deploy and Monitor:
Apply the script to your preferred asset and timeframe.
Use the backtest results to fine-tune settings for optimal performance.
Why Choose This Script?:
This script stands out due to its dual-strategy flexibility and enhanced features:
For beginners: Strategy 1 provides a simple yet effective trend-following system with minimal setup.
For advanced traders: Strategy 2 includes powerful tools like trend filters and ATR-based stop-loss, making it ideal for challenging market conditions.
By combining simplicity with advanced features, this script offers something for everyone while maintaining full transparency and user customization.
Default Settings:
Strategy 1:
Fast SMA: 21, Slow SMA: 49
Take Profit: 7% or 50 pips
Trailing Stop: Optional (disabled by default)
Strategy 2:
Fast SMA: 20, Slow SMA: 50
ATR Multiplier: 1.5
Partial Take Profit: 50%
Higher Timeframe: 1 Day (1D)
Skeleton Key LiteSkeleton Key Lite Strategy
Note : Every input, except for the API Alerts, depends on an external indicator to provide the necessary values for the strategy to function.
Definitions
Strategy Direction: The trading direction (long or short) as determined by an external source, such as an indicator.
Threshold Conditions:
- Enter Condition: Defines the condition for entering a trade.
- Exit Condition: Defines the condition for exiting a trade.
Stop Loss (SL):
- Trail SL: A trailing stop loss, dynamically updated during the trade.
- Basic SL: A static stop loss level.
- Emergency SL (ER SL): A fallback stop loss for extreme conditions.
- Max SL: The maximum risk tolerance in stop loss.
- Limit SL: A predefined stop loss that is executed as a limit order.
Take Profit (TP):
- Max TP: The maximum profit target for a trade.
- Limit TP: A predefined take profit level executed as a limit order.
API Alerts:
- API Entry: JSON-based configuration for sending entry signals.
- API Exit: JSON-based configuration for sending exit signals.
Broad Concept
The Skeleton Key Lite strategy script is designed to provide a generalized framework for orchestrating trade execution based on external indicators. It allows QuantAlchemy and others to encapsulate strategies into indicators, which can then be backtested and automated using this strategy script.
Inputs
Note : All inputs are dependent on external indicators for values except for the API Alerts.
Strategy Direction:
- Source: Direction signal from an external indicator.
- Options: `LONG` (`1`), `SHORT` (`-1`).
Trade Conditions:
- Enter: Source input, trigger for entry condition.
- Exit: Source input, trigger for exit condition.
Stops and Take Profits:
- Trail SL: Enable/disable dynamic trailing stop loss.
- Basic SL: Enable/disable static stop loss.
- Emergency SL: Enable/disable emergency stop loss.
- Max SL: Enable/disable maximum risk stop loss.
- Max TP: Enable/disable maximum take profit.
- Limit SL: Enable/disable predefined stop loss executed as a limit order.
- Limit TP: Enable/disable predefined take profit executed as a limit order.
Alerts:
- API Entry: Configurable JSON message for entry signals.
- API Exit: Configurable JSON message for exit signals.
How It Works
Trade Logic:
- Conditions for entering and exiting trades are evaluated based on the selected input sources.
Stop Loss and Take Profit Management:
- Multiple stop loss types (trailing, basic, emergency, etc.) and take profit levels are calculated dynamically during the trade entry. Trailing stop loss is updated during the trade based on the selected input.
API Alerts:
- Alerts are triggered using customizable JSON messages, which can be integrated with external trading systems or APIs.
Trade Execution:
- Enter: Initiates a new trade if entry conditions are met and there is no open position.
- Exit: Closes all trades if exit conditions are met or stop loss/take profit thresholds are hit.
Key Features
Customizable: Fully configurable entry and exit conditions based on external indicators.
Encapsulation: Integrates seamlessly with indicators, allowing strategies to be developed as indicator-based signals.
Comprehensive Risk Management:
- Multiple stop loss and take profit options.
- Emergency stop loss for unexpected conditions.
API Integration: Alerts are designed to interface with external systems for automation and monitoring.
Plots
The script plots key variables on the chart for better visualization:
Enter and Exit Signals:
- `enter`: Displays when the entry condition is triggered.
- `exit`: Displays when the exit condition is triggered.
Risk Management Levels:
- `trailSL`: Current trailing stop loss level.
- `basicSL`: Static stop loss level.
- `erSL`: Emergency stop loss level.
- `maxSL`: Maximum risk stop loss level.
Profit Management Levels:
- `maxTP`: Maximum take profit level.
- `limitTP`: Limit-based take profit level.
Limit Orders:
- `limitSL`: Limit-based stop loss level.
- `limitTP`: Limit-based take profit level.
Proposed Interpretations
Entry and Exit Points:
- Use the plotted signals (`enter`, `exit`) to analyze the trade entry and exit points visually.
Risk and Profit Levels:
- Monitor the stop loss (`SL`) and take profit (`TP`) levels to assess trade performance.
Dynamic Trail SL:
- Observe the `trailSL` to evaluate how the trailing stop adapts during the trade.
Limitations
Dependence on Indicators:
- This script relies on external indicators to provide signals for strategy execution.
No Indicator Included:
- Users must integrate an appropriate indicator for source inputs.
Back-Test Constraints:
- Back-testing results depend on the accuracy and design of the integrated indicators.
Final Thoughts
The Skeleton Key Lite strategy by QuantAlchemy provides a robust framework for automated trading by leveraging indicator-based signals. Its flexibility and comprehensive risk management make it a valuable tool for traders seeking to implement and backtest custom strategies.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only. Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Use at your own discretion and risk.
Max Pain StrategyThe Max Pain Strategy uses a combination of volume and price movement thresholds to identify potential "pain zones" in the market. A "pain zone" is considered when the volume exceeds a certain multiple of its average over a defined lookback period, and the price movement exceeds a predefined percentage relative to the price at the beginning of the lookback period.
Here’s how the strategy functions step-by-step:
Inputs:
length: Defines the lookback period used to calculate the moving average of volume and the price change over that period.
volMultiplier: Sets a threshold multiplier for the volume; if the volume exceeds the average volume multiplied by this factor, it triggers the condition for a potential "pain zone."
priceMultiplier: Sets a threshold for the minimum percentage price change that is required for a "pain zone" condition.
Calculations:
averageVolume: The simple moving average (SMA) of volume over the specified lookback period.
priceChange: The absolute difference in price between the current bar's close and the close from the lookback period (length).
Pain Zone Condition:
The condition for entering a position is triggered if both the volume is higher than the average volume by the volMultiplier and the price change exceeds the price at the length-period ago by the priceMultiplier. This is an indication of significant market activity that could result in a price move.
Position Entry:
A long position is entered when the "pain zone" condition is met.
Exit Strategy:
The position is closed after the specified holdPeriods, which defines how many periods the position will be held after being entered.
Visualization:
A small triangle is plotted on the chart where the "pain zone" condition is met.
The background color changes to a semi-transparent red when the "pain zone" is active.
Scientific Explanation of the Components
Volume Analysis and Price Movement: These are two critical factors in trading strategies. Volume often serves as an indicator of market strength (or weakness), and price movement is a direct reflection of market sentiment. Higher volume with significant price movement may suggest that the market is entering a phase of increased volatility or trend formation, which the strategy aims to exploit.
Volume analysis: The study of volume as an indicator of market participation, with increased volume often signaling stronger trends (Murphy, J. J., Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets).
Price movement thresholds: A large price change over a short period may be interpreted as a breakout or a potential reversal point, aligning with volatility and liquidity analysis (Schwager, J. D., Market Wizards).
Repainting Check: This strategy does not involve any repainting because it is based on current and past data, and there is no reference to future values in the decision-making process. However, any strategy that uses lagging indicators or conditions based on historical bars, like close , is inherently a lagging strategy and might not predict real-time price action accurately until after the fact.
Risk Management: The position hold duration is predefined, which adds an element of time-based risk control. This duration ensures that the strategy does not hold a position indefinitely, which could expose it to unnecessary risk.
Potential Issues and Considerations
Repainting:
The strategy does not utilize future data or conditions that depend on future bars, so it does not inherently suffer from repainting issues.
However, since the strategy relies on volume and price change over a set lookback period, the decision to enter or exit a trade is only made after the data for the current bar is complete, meaning the trade decisions are somewhat delayed, which could be seen as a lagging feature rather than a repainting one.
Lagging Nature:
As with many technical analysis-based strategies, this one is based on past data (moving averages, price changes), meaning it reacts to market movements after they have already occurred, rather than predicting future price actions.
Overfitting Risk:
With parameters like the lookback period and multipliers being user-adjustable, there is a risk of overfitting to historical data. Adjusting parameters too much based on past performance can lead to poor out-of-sample results (Gauthier, P., Practical Quantitative Finance).
Conclusion
The Max Pain Strategy is a simple approach to identifying potential market entries based on volume spikes and significant price changes. It avoids repainting by relying solely on historical and current bar data, but it is inherently a lagging strategy that reacts to price and volume patterns after they have occurred. Therefore, the strategy can be effective in trending markets but may struggle in highly volatile, sideways markets.
The Most Powerful TQQQ EMA Crossover Trend Trading StrategyTQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy Indicator
Meta Title: TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy - Enhance Your Trading with Effective Signals
Meta Description: Discover the TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy, designed to optimize trading decisions with fast and slow EMA crossovers. Learn how to effectively use this powerful indicator for better trading results.
Key Features
The TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy is a powerful trading tool that utilizes Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to identify potential entry and exit points in the market. Key features of this indicator include:
**Fast and Slow EMAs:** The strategy incorporates two EMAs, allowing traders to capture short-term trends while filtering out market noise.
**Entry and Exit Signals:** Automated signals for entering and exiting trades based on EMA crossovers, enhancing decision-making efficiency.
**Customizable Parameters:** Users can adjust the lengths of the EMAs, as well as take profit and stop loss multipliers, tailoring the strategy to their trading style.
**Visual Indicators:** Clear visual plots of the EMAs and exit points on the chart for easy interpretation.
How It Works
The TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy operates by calculating two EMAs: a fast EMA (default length of 20) and a slow EMA (default length of 50). The core concept is based on the crossover of these two moving averages:
- When the fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA, it generates a *buy signal*, indicating a potential upward trend.
- Conversely, when the fast EMA crosses below the slow EMA, it produces a *sell signal*, suggesting a potential downward trend.
This method allows traders to capitalize on momentum shifts in the market, providing timely signals for trade execution.
Trading Ideas and Insights
Traders can leverage the TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy in various market conditions. Here are some insights:
**Scalping Opportunities:** The strategy is particularly effective for scalping in volatile markets, allowing traders to make quick profits on small price movements.
**Swing Trading:** Longer-term traders can use this strategy to identify significant trend reversals and capitalize on larger price swings.
**Risk Management:** By incorporating customizable stop loss and take profit levels, traders can manage their risk effectively while maximizing potential returns.
How Multiple Indicators Work Together
While this strategy primarily relies on EMAs, it can be enhanced by integrating additional indicators such as:
- **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** To confirm overbought or oversold conditions before entering trades.
- **Volume Indicators:** To validate breakout signals, ensuring that price movements are supported by sufficient trading volume.
Combining these indicators provides a more comprehensive view of market dynamics, increasing the reliability of trade signals generated by the EMA crossover.
Unique Aspects
What sets this indicator apart is its simplicity combined with effectiveness. The reliance on EMAs allows for smoother signals compared to traditional moving averages, reducing false signals often associated with choppy price action. Additionally, the ability to customize parameters ensures that traders can adapt the strategy to fit their unique trading styles and risk tolerance.
How to Use
To effectively utilize the TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy:
1. **Add the Indicator:** Load the script onto your TradingView chart.
2. **Set Parameters:** Adjust the fast and slow EMA lengths according to your trading preferences.
3. **Monitor Signals:** Watch for crossover points; enter trades based on buy/sell signals generated by the indicator.
4. **Implement Risk Management:** Set your stop loss and take profit levels using the provided multipliers.
Regularly review your trading performance and adjust parameters as necessary to optimize results.
Customization
The TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy allows for extensive customization:
- **EMA Lengths:** Change the default lengths of both fast and slow EMAs to suit different time frames or market conditions.
- **Take Profit/Stop Loss Multipliers:** Adjust these values to align with your risk management strategy. For instance, increasing the take profit multiplier may yield larger gains but could also increase exposure to market fluctuations.
This flexibility makes it suitable for various trading styles, from aggressive scalpers to conservative swing traders.
Conclusion
The TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy is an effective tool for traders seeking an edge in their trading endeavors. By utilizing fast and slow EMAs, this indicator provides clear entry and exit signals while allowing for customization to fit individual trading strategies. Whether you are a scalper looking for quick profits or a swing trader aiming for larger moves, this indicator offers valuable insights into market trends.
Incorporate it into your TradingView toolkit today and elevate your trading performance!
S&P 100 Option Expiration Week StrategyThe Option Expiration Week Strategy aims to capitalize on increased volatility and trading volume that often occur during the week leading up to the expiration of options on stocks in the S&P 100 index. This period, known as the option expiration week, culminates on the third Friday of each month when stock options typically expire in the U.S. During this week, investors in this strategy take a long position in S&P 100 stocks or an equivalent ETF from the Monday preceding the third Friday, holding until Friday. The strategy capitalizes on potential upward price pressures caused by increased option-related trading activity, rebalancing, and hedging practices.
The phenomenon leveraged by this strategy is well-documented in finance literature. Studies demonstrate that options expiration dates have a significant impact on stock returns, trading volume, and volatility. This effect is driven by various market dynamics, including portfolio rebalancing, delta hedging by option market makers, and the unwinding of positions by institutional investors (Stoll & Whaley, 1987; Ni, Pearson, & Poteshman, 2005). These market activities intensify near option expiration, causing price adjustments that may create short-term profitable opportunities for those aware of these patterns (Roll, Schwartz, & Subrahmanyam, 2009).
The paper by Johnson and So (2013), Returns and Option Activity over the Option-Expiration Week for S&P 100 Stocks, provides empirical evidence supporting this strategy. The study analyzes the impact of option expiration on S&P 100 stocks, showing that these stocks tend to exhibit abnormal returns and increased volume during the expiration week. The authors attribute these patterns to intensified option trading activity, where demand for hedging and arbitrage around options expiration causes temporary price adjustments.
Scientific Explanation
Research has found that option expiration weeks are marked by predictable increases in stock returns and volatility, largely due to the role of options market makers and institutional investors. Option market makers often use delta hedging to manage exposure, which requires frequent buying or selling of the underlying stock to maintain a hedged position. As expiration approaches, their activity can amplify price fluctuations. Additionally, institutional investors often roll over or unwind positions during expiration weeks, creating further demand for underlying stocks (Stoll & Whaley, 1987). This increased demand around expiration week typically leads to temporary stock price increases, offering profitable opportunities for short-term strategies.
Key Research and Bibliography
Johnson, T. C., & So, E. C. (2013). Returns and Option Activity over the Option-Expiration Week for S&P 100 Stocks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(11), 4226-4240.
This study specifically examines the S&P 100 stocks and demonstrates that option expiration weeks are associated with abnormal returns and trading volume due to increased activity in the options market.
Stoll, H. R., & Whaley, R. E. (1987). Program Trading and Expiration-Day Effects. Financial Analysts Journal, 43(2), 16-28.
Stoll and Whaley analyze how program trading and portfolio insurance strategies around expiration days impact stock prices, leading to temporary volatility and increased trading volume.
Ni, S. X., Pearson, N. D., & Poteshman, A. M. (2005). Stock Price Clustering on Option Expiration Dates. Journal of Financial Economics, 78(1), 49-87.
This paper investigates how option expiration dates affect stock price clustering and volume, driven by delta hedging and other option-related trading activities.
Roll, R., Schwartz, E., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2009). Options Trading Activity and Firm Valuation. Journal of Financial Markets, 12(3), 519-534.
The authors explore how options trading activity influences firm valuation, finding that higher options volume around expiration dates can lead to temporary price movements in underlying stocks.
Cao, C., & Wei, J. (2010). Option Market Liquidity and Stock Return Volatility. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(2), 481-507.
This study examines the relationship between options market liquidity and stock return volatility, finding that increased liquidity needs during expiration weeks can heighten volatility, impacting stock returns.
Summary
The Option Expiration Week Strategy utilizes well-researched financial market phenomena related to option expiration. By positioning long in S&P 100 stocks or ETFs during this period, traders can potentially capture abnormal returns driven by option market dynamics. The literature suggests that options-related activities—such as delta hedging, position rollovers, and portfolio adjustments—intensify demand for underlying assets, creating short-term profit opportunities around these key dates.
Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion by Kevin Davey Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion Strategy Description
The Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion Strategy is a popular trading approach based on the concept of volatility and market overreaction. The strategy leverages Bollinger Bands, which consist of an upper and lower band plotted around a central moving average, typically using standard deviations to measure volatility. When the price moves beyond these bands, it signals potential overbought or oversold conditions, and the strategy seeks to exploit a reversion back to the mean (the central band).
Strategy Components:
1. Bollinger Bands:
The bands are calculated using a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a multiple (usually 2.0) of the standard deviation of the asset’s price over the same period. The upper band represents the SMA plus two standard deviations, while the lower band is the SMA minus two standard deviations. The distance between the bands increases with higher volatility and decreases with lower volatility.
2. Mean Reversion:
Mean reversion theory suggests that, over time, prices tend to move back toward their historical average. In this strategy, a buy signal is triggered when the price falls below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential oversold condition. Conversely, the position is closed when the price rises back above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling an overbought condition.
Entry and Exit Logic:
Buy Condition: The strategy enters a long position when the price closes below the lower Bollinger Band, anticipating a mean reversion to the central band (SMA).
Sell Condition: The long position is exited when the price closes above the upper Bollinger Band, implying that the market is likely overbought and a reversal could occur.
This approach uses mean reversion principles, aiming to capitalize on short-term price extremes and volatility compression, often seen in sideways or non-trending markets. Scientific studies have shown that mean reversion strategies, particularly those based on volatility indicators like Bollinger Bands, can be effective in capturing small but frequent price reversals  .
Scientific Basis for Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands, developed by John Bollinger, are widely regarded in both academic literature and practical trading as an essential tool for volatility analysis and mean reversion strategies. Research has shown that Bollinger Bands effectively identify relative price highs and lows, and can be used to forecast price volatility and detect potential breakouts . Studies in financial markets, such as those by Fernández-Rodríguez et al. (2003), highlight the efficacy of Bollinger Bands in detecting overbought or oversold conditions in various assets .
Who is Kevin Davey?
Kevin Davey is an award-winning algorithmic trader and highly regarded expert in developing and optimizing systematic trading strategies. With over 25 years of experience, Davey gained significant recognition after winning the prestigious World Cup Trading Championships multiple times, where he achieved triple-digit returns with minimal drawdown. His success has made him a key figure in algorithmic trading education, with a focus on disciplined and rule-based trading systems.
Oscillator Price Divergence & Trend Strategy (DPS) // AlgoFyreThe Oscillator Price Divergence & Trend Strategy (DPS) strategy combines price divergence and trend indicators for trend trading. It uses divergence conditions to identify entry points and a trend source for directional bias. The strategy incorporates risk management through dynamic position sizing based on a fixed risk amount. It allows for both long and short positions with customizable stop-loss and take-profit levels. The script includes visualization options for entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, enhancing trade analysis.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
🔶 ORIGINALITY
🔸Divergence-Trend Combination
🔸Dynamic Position Sizing
🔸Customizable Risk Management
🔶 FUNCTIONALITY
🔸Indicators
🞘 Trend Indicator
🞘 Oscillator Source
🔸Conditions
🞘 Long Entry
🞘 Short Entry
🞘 Take Profit
🞘 Stop Loss
🔶 INSTRUCTIONS
🔸Adding the Strategy to the Chart
🔸Configuring the Strategy
🔸Backtesting and Practice
🔸Market Awareness
🔸Visual Customization
🔶 CONCLUSION
▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅
🔶 ORIGINALITY The Divergence Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing strategy uniquely combines price divergence indicators with trend analysis to optimize entry and exit points. Unlike static trading strategies, it employs dynamic position sizing based on a fixed risk amount, ensuring consistent risk management. This approach allows traders to adapt to varying market conditions by adjusting position sizes according to predefined risk parameters, enhancing both flexibility and control in trading decisions. The strategy's integration of customizable stop-loss and take-profit levels further refines its risk management capabilities, making it a robust tool for both trending and volatile markets.
🔸Divergence-Trend Combination By combining trend direction with divergence conditions, the strategy enhances the accuracy of entry signals, aligning trades with prevailing market trends.
🔸Dynamic Position Sizing This strategy calculates position sizes dynamically, based on a fixed risk amount, allowing traders to maintain consistent risk exposure across trades.
🔸Customizable Risk Management Traders can set flexible risk-reward ratios and adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels, tailoring the strategy to their risk tolerance and market conditions.
🔶 FUNCTIONALITY The Divergence Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing strategy leverages a combination of trend indicators and price and oscillator divergences to identify optimal trading opportunities. This strategy is designed to capitalize on medium to long-term price movements and works best on h1, h4 or D1 timeframes. It allows traders to manage risk effectively while taking advantage of both long and short positions.
🔸Indicators 🞘 Trend Indicator: A long trend is used to determine market direction, ensuring trades align with prevailing trends.
Recommendation: We recommend using the Adaptive MAs (Hurst, CVaR, Fractal) // AlgoFyre indicator with the following settings for trend detection. However, you can use any trend indicator that suits your trading style, e.g. an EMA 200.
🞘 Oscillator Source: The oscillator source is used for momentum price divergence identification. Any momentum oscillator can be used, e.g. RSI, Stochastic etc. A good oscillator is the Stochastic with the following settings:
🔸Conditions 🞘 Long Entry: A long entry condition is met if price closes above the trend AND selected divergence conditions are met, e.g. regular bullish divergence with a 10 bar lookback period with the divergence being below the 50 point mean. If the info table shows all 3 columns in the same color, the entry conditions are met and a position is opened.
🞘 Short Entry: A short entry condition is met if price closes below the trend AND selected divergence conditions are met, e.g. regular bearish divergence with a 10 bar lookback period with the divergence being above the 50 point mean.
🞘 Take Profit: Take Profit is determined by the Risk to Reward Ratio settings depending on the price distance between the entry price and the stop loss price, e.g. if stop loss is 1% away from entry and Risk Reward Ratio is 3:1 then Take Profit will be set at 3% from entry.
🞘 Stop Loss: Stop loss is a fixed level away from the trend source. For long positions, stop loss is set below the trend, and for short positions, above the trend.
🔶 INSTRUCTIONS The Divergence Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing strategy can be set up by adding it to your TradingView chart and configuring parameters such as the oscillator source, trend source, and risk management settings. This strategy is designed to capitalize on short-term price movements by dynamically adjusting position sizes based on predefined risk parameters. Enhance the accuracy of signals by combining this strategy with additional indicators like trend-following or momentum-based tools. Adjust settings to better manage risk and optimize entry and exit points.
🔸Adding the Strategy to the Chart:
Go to your TradingView chart.
Click on the "Indicators" button at the top.
Search for "Divergence Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing // AlgoFyre" in the indicators list.
Click on the strategy to add it to your chart.
🔸Configuring the Strategy:
Open the strategy settings by clicking on the gear icon next to its name on the chart.
Oscillator Source: Select the source for the oscillator. An oscillator like Stochastic needs to be attached to the chart already in order to be used as an oscillator source to be selectable.
Trend Source: Choose the trend source to determine market direction. A trend indicator like Adaptive MAs (Hurst, CVaR, Fractal) // AlgoFyre needs to be attached to the chart already in order to be used as a trend source to be selectable.
Stop Loss Percentage: Set the stop loss distance from the trend source as a percentage.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Define the desired risk/reward ratio for trades.
🔸Backtesting and Practice:
Backtest the strategy on historical data to understand how it performs in various market environments.
Practice using the strategy on a demo account before implementing it in live trading.
🔸Market Awareness:
Keep an eye on market news and events that might cause extreme price movements. The strategy reacts to price data and might not account for news-driven events that can cause large deviations.
🔸Visual Customization Visualization Settings: Customize the display of entry price, take profit, and stop loss levels.
Color Settings: Switch to the AlgoFyre theme or set custom colors for bullish, bearish, and neutral states.
Table Settings: Enable or disable the information table and adjust its position.
🔶 CONCLUSION
The Divergence Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing strategy provides a robust framework for capitalizing on short-term market trends by combining price divergence with dynamic position sizing. This strategy leverages divergence conditions to identify entry points and utilizes a trend source for directional bias, ensuring trades align with prevailing market conditions. By incorporating dynamic position sizing based on a fixed risk amount, traders can effectively manage risk and adapt to varying market conditions. The strategy's customizable stop-loss and take-profit levels further enhance its risk management capabilities, making it a versatile tool for both trending and volatile markets. With its strategic blend of technical indicators and risk management, the Divergence Trend Trading strategy offers traders a comprehensive approach to optimizing trade execution and maximizing potential returns.
- Trading Bot – TopBot Anomaly Robot Strategy -- Introduction -
This strategy is based on a search for abnormal market price movements relative to a time-shifted main moving average. Different variations of the main moving average are created and shifted proportionally rather than linearly, giving the strategy greater reactivity and serving as position entry points. What's more ? This strategy stands out with a major innovation, allowing position exits to be set on variations in the moving average (and not on the moving average itself, like all strategies that close positions on return to the moving average), which greatly improves actual results.
- Detailed operation of the strategy -
It defines a function that calculates various moving averages (depending on the type of moving average defined by the user) and the chosen length. The function takes into account different types of moving averages: SMA, PCMA, EMA, WMA, DEMA, ZLEMA and HMA, and is offset in time so that it can be an entry or exit condition in real time (otherwise you'd have to wait for the next candle for the moving average to be calculated).
It calculates shifted variants (semi-parallel) as a percentage of this main moving average, high and low, to define position entry points (depending on user settings, up to 10 shifted levels for ten position entries for each direction). By calculating shifts as percentages rather than fixed values, the resulting deviations are not parallel to the main moving average, but can be used to detect sudden price contractions. By adjusting these deviations proportionally, we can observe variations relative to the main moving average more clearly, enabling us to detect dynamic support and resistance zones that adapt to market fluctuations. The fact that they are not strictly parallel avoids too rigid an interpretation and gives a more nuanced reading of trends, capturing small divergences that could indicate more subtle changes in market dynamics.
The most distinctive feature of this strategy concerns position exits: the script calculates two new moving averages shifted in proportion to the main moving average (adjustable) to define position exit price levels.
The strategy enters position when one of the deviations from the position entry moving average is crossed, and exits position when the deviation from the position exit moving average is crossed.
Position entry can be single or up to ten entry levels per direction to smooth trades. Differentiated settings are available for Longs and Shorts.
In this type of strategy, the return to the moving average is generally used as the position exit point, but this strategy incorporates a unique feature: the position exit can be made on a deviation from the moving average, adjustable and differentiated for Long and Short positions.
This is a major change compared to other strategies using a moving-average position exit, since the result is thatchanging the position exit point considerably improves the strategy's results .
Backtest with a classic exit back to the moving average :
Backtest with an exit back on an (adjustable) derivative of the moving average :
- “Ready to use” and user-adjustable parameters -
The strategy interface has been optimized for easy creation of trading robots, with all settings underlying the calculations and numerous options for optimization. Here are the contents of the strategy parameters interface:
In addition, important information about strategy settings and results is displayed directly on the chart. The percentage profit displayed may differ slightly from that of the backtest, as it includes potential profits from open trades (strategy.openprofit) in its calculation.
- Conditions, options and settings for graph and backtest presentation -
Here are the conditions and settings for the graph presented on the screen:
The strategy is set for 10 possible LONG and SHORT entries
10% of capital in x2 leverage is invested at each position entry (i.e. 20% of capital under backtest conditions)
The backtest runs for 14 months: from 08/17/2023 to 08/19/2024
It is carried out on PENDLEUSDT.P on BitGet Swap in 4H
LONGS strategy settings: 0.18 - 0.19 - 0.2 - 0.21 - 0.22 - 0.23 - 0.24 - 0.25 - 0.26 - 0.275 - LONGS output deviation: 0.03 (3%)
Strategy settings for SHORTS: 0.21 - 0.22 - 0.23 - 0.24 - 0.25 - 0.26 - 0.27 - 0.28 - 0.29 - 0.3 - LONGS output deviation: 0.032 (3.2%)
All other settings are strategy defaults - Broker fees + spread are set at 0.13% per trade
We can see several interesting points:
The strategy has very high winrate if set to this objective
The settings here have not been “over-optimized”, i.e. all 10 entries are unused, leaving room for larger-than-expected market movements in the future. In this particular case, it is set to favor safety over profitability optimization, but other approaches are possible to maximize profitability.
The result is 277.75% , thanks to the strategy's adjustment of position exit levels. With a conventional exit at the moving average, results are only 204.47%, a significant difference.
- How to adjust and apply the strategy? -
Generally speaking, the strategy works well on a large proportion of cryptocurrencies, especially for LONG positions. The recommended timeframes are: 30M-45M-1H-2H-3H-4H and the most appropriate timeframe will vary according to the cryptocurrency. It is also possible, with certain assets, to run the strategy on shorter timeframes such as 5M or 15M with success.
The strategy can be used with a single position entry level, maximizing capital utilization on each trade and/or having several strategies active on a single account at the same time
It can also be used in a “safe” way, using up to ten successive entries to smooth out unforeseen market movements and minimize risk as much as possible. In this case, enter positions with 1/10 of the capital each time, for a setting of ten entries, and give preference to a single active bot per account so that all positions can be covered (a fixed dollar amount, not a percentage, is then recommended)
The recommended leverage is x1 or x2 for controlled long-term trading, especially with ten entry levels, although sometimes higher leverage could be considered with controlled risk.
Here's how to set up the strategy:
Start by finding a cryptocurrency displaying a nice curve with the default settings
Then try out the default settings on all timeframes, and select the timeframe with the best curve or the best result
Deactivate shorts
Set the first long triggerlevel to the value that gives the best result
(optional): Change the moving average type, period and data source to find the most optimized setting before proceeding to the next step
Set the 10thlong inputlevel to the last value modifying the result
Set the 8 intermediate input levels, distributing them as evenly as possible
Then adjust the output level of the longs, which can greatly improve the results
Temporarily deactivate the longs, activate the shorts and follow the same process
Reactivate longs and shorts
- How to program robots for automated trading using this strategy -
If you want to use this strategy for automated trading, it's very simple. All you need is an account with a cryptocurrency broker that allows APIs, and an intermediary between TradinView and your broker who will manage your orders.
Here's how it works:
On your intermediary, create a bot that will manage the details of your orders (amount, single or multiple entries, exit conditions). This bot is linked to the broker via an API and will be able to place real orders. Each bot has four different signals that enable it to be activated via a webhook. When one of the signals is received, it executes the orders for you.
On TradingView, set the strategy to a suitable asset and timeframe. Once set, enter in the strategy parameters the signals specific to the bot you've created. Confirm and close the parameters.
Still on TradingView, create an alarm based on your set strategy (on the strategy tester). Give the alarm the name of your choice and in “Message” enter only{{strategy.order.comment}}.
In alarm notifications, activate the webhook and enter the webhook of your trading intermediary. Confirm the alarm.
As long as the alarm is activated in TradingView, the strategy will monitor the market and send an order to enter or exit a position as soon as the conditions are met. Your bot will receive the instruction and place orders with your broker. Subsequent changes to the strategy settings do not change those stored in the alarm. If you wish to change the settings for one of your bots, simply delete the old alarm and create a new one.
Note: In your bot settings, on your intermediary, make sure to allow: - Multiple inputs - A single output signal to close all positions - Stoploss disabled (if necessary, use the strategy one)
NNFX RSI EMA FVMA MACD ALGOThis Pine Script introduces a cutting-edge trading strategy that seamlessly integrates multiple technical indicators—namely, the Flexible Variable Moving Average ( FVMA ), Relative Strength Index ( RSI ), Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD ), and Exponential Moving Average ( EMA )—to deliver a sophisticated trading experience. This script stands out due to its comprehensive approach, robust risk management, and the inclusion of crucial data tables for various timeframes, making it an invaluable tool for traders seeking to enhance their market performance.
Originality of the Strategy:
The originality of this script lies in its unique combination of multiple powerful indicators, enabling traders to benefit from diverse perspectives on market dynamics. This mashup enhances decision-making processes, providing multiple layers of confirmation for trade entries and exits. The strategy is designed to offer an innovative solution for traders looking to improve their performance through well-defined rules and a solid framework.
Flexible Variable Moving Average (FVMA):
The FVMA adapts dynamically to market conditions, offering a more responsive trend line than traditional moving averages. This flexibility allows for quick identification of trends and reversals, crucial for fast-paced trading environments.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA):
By giving greater weight to recent price data, the EMA enhances sensitivity to price changes, allowing for more accurate entries and exits when used alongside the FVMA. This combination maximizes the effectiveness of the strategy in identifying optimal trading opportunities.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI helps identify overbought or oversold conditions, integrating seamlessly with other indicators to enhance the strategy's ability to pinpoint potential reversal points. This aspect of the strategy ensures that traders can make informed decisions based on market momentum.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
The MACD serves as an essential confirmation tool, providing insights into trend strength and momentum. This enhances the accuracy of entry and exit signals, allowing traders to make more informed decisions based on robust technical analysis.
Multi-Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) Levels:
The strategy supports multiple TPs, allowing traders to lock in profits at various levels while effectively managing risk through a robust SL system. This flexibility caters to diverse trading styles and risk profiles, ensuring that the strategy can adapt to individual trader needs.
Default Properties:
Take Profit Levels: TP1 is set to 2.0, and TP2 is set to 2.9, which is designed to enhance profit potential while maintaining a solid risk-reward ratio.
Stop Loss: A SL is set at 2% of the 5% account balance, which helps to preserve capital and manage risk effectively, adhering to the guideline of not risking more than 5-10% of the account balance per trade.
Labeling System for Exits: Automatic labeling of TP and SL exits on the chart provides clear visualization of trading outcomes. This feature supports informed decision-making and performance tracking, aligning with the guideline of providing transparent results.
Custom Alerts System:
The inclusion of customizable alerts for trade entries, exits, and SL/TP hits keeps traders informed in real-time, enabling prompt actions without constant market monitoring. This is crucial for effective trade management and helps traders respond quickly to market changes.
API Boxes for Automated Trading:
The strategy features API boxes, allowing traders to set up automated trading based on indicator signals. This functionality enables seamless integration with trading platforms, enhancing efficiency and streamlining the trading process, which is particularly valuable for traders looking to optimize their execution.
Data Tables for Enhanced Analysis:
The script includes data tables displaying critical insights across various timeframes: 2-hour, daily, weekly, and monthly. These tables provide a comprehensive overview of market conditions, allowing traders to analyze trends and make informed decisions based on a broad spectrum of data. By leveraging this information, traders can identify high-probability setups and align their strategies with prevailing market trends, significantly increasing their chances of success.
Default Properties:
Initial Capital: £1,000, ensuring a realistic starting point for traders.
Risk per Trade: 5% of the account balance, promoting sustainable trading practices.
Commission: 0.1%, reflecting realistic transaction costs that traders may encounter.
Slippage: 1%, accounting for potential market volatility during trade execution.
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 2.0
TP2: 2.9
Stop Loss (SL): 2% of the 5% account balance, which is well within acceptable risk parameters.
Compliance with TradingView Guidelines:
This script fully complies with TradingView's guidelines, specifically:
Strategy Results:
The strategy is designed to publish backtesting results that do not mislead traders. The realistic parameters outlined in the default properties ensure that traders have a clear understanding of potential outcomes.
The dataset used for backtesting has sufficient trades to produce a reliable sample size, aligning with the guideline of ideally having more than 100 trades.
Any deviations from recommended practices are justified in the script description, ensuring transparency and adherence to best practices.
The script explains the default properties in detail, providing a thorough understanding of how these settings influence performance.
Why This Script is Worth Paying For:
This Pine Script offers an unparalleled trading experience through its unique combination of technical indicators, comprehensive trade management features, and detailed data tables for multiple timeframes. Here are compelling reasons to invest in this strategy:
Holistic Approach: The integration of multiple indicators ensures a well-rounded perspective on market conditions, increasing the likelihood of successful trades.
Advanced Risk Management: The flexibility of multiple TPs and SLs empowers traders to tailor their risk profiles according to individual strategies, enhancing overall profitability.
Automated Trading Capability: The inclusion of API boxes for automated trading streamlines execution, allowing traders to capitalize on opportunities without the need for manual intervention.
Comprehensive Data Analysis: The detailed data tables provide invaluable insights across different timeframes, enabling traders to make informed decisions based on robust market analysis.
In summary, this innovative Pine Script represents a powerful tool designed to empower traders at all levels. Its originality, synergistic functionality, and comprehensive features create a dynamic and effective trading environment, justifying its value and positioning it as a must-have for anyone serious about achieving consistent trading success.
MACD Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing // AlgoFyreThe MACD Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing strategy combines MACD and trend indicators for trend trading. It uses MACD crossovers to identify entry points and a trend source for directional bias. The strategy incorporates risk management through dynamic position sizing based on a fixed risk amount. It allows for both long and short positions with customizable stop-loss and take-profit levels. The script includes visualization options for entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, enhancing trade analysis.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
🔶 ORIGINALITY
🔸Dynamic Position Sizing
🔸Trend-MACD Combination
🔸Customizable Risk Management
🔶 FUNCTIONALITY
🔸Indicators
🞘 Trend Indicator
🞘 Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
🔸Conditions
🞘 Long Entry
🞘 Short Entry
🔶 INSTRUCTIONS
🔸Step-by-Step Guidelines
🞘 Setting Up the Strategy
🞘 Alerts
🔸Customize settings
🔶 CONCLUSION
▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅
🔶 ORIGINALITY The MACD Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing strategy uniquely combines MACD indicators with trend analysis to optimize entry and exit points. Unlike static trading strategies, it employs dynamic position sizing based on a fixed risk amount, ensuring consistent risk management. This approach allows traders to adapt to varying market conditions by adjusting position sizes according to predefined risk parameters, enhancing both flexibility and control in trading decisions. The strategy's integration of customizable stop-loss and take-profit levels further refines its risk management capabilities, making it a robust tool for both trending and volatile markets.
🔸Dynamic Position Sizing This strategy calculates position sizes dynamically, based on a fixed risk amount, allowing traders to maintain consistent risk exposure across trades.
🔸Trend-MACD Combination By combining trend direction with MACD crossovers, the strategy enhances the accuracy of entry signals, aligning trades with prevailing market trends.
🔸Customizable Risk Management Traders can set flexible risk-reward ratios and adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels, tailoring the strategy to their risk tolerance and market conditions.
🔶 FUNCTIONALITY The MACD Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing strategy leverages a combination of trend indicators and the MACD to identify optimal trading opportunities. This strategy is designed to capitalize on short-term price movements by dynamically adjusting position sizes based on predefined risk parameters. It allows traders to manage risk effectively while taking advantage of both long and short positions.
🔸Indicators 🞘 Trend Indicator: Utilizes the trend source to determine market direction, ensuring trades align with prevailing trends.
Recommendation: We recommend using the Adaptive MAs (Hurst, CVaR, Fractal) indicator with the following settings for trend detection. However, you can use any trend indicator that suits your trading style.
🞘 Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Employs MACD crossovers to generate entry signals, enhancing the accuracy of trade execution. Use the "Moving Average Convergence Divergence" Indicator with the following settings:
🔸Conditions 🞘 Long Entry: Initiates a long position when the price is above the trend source, and a MACD crossover occurs with both MACD and signal lines below zero.
🞘 Short Entry: Initiates a short position when the price is below the trend source, and a MACD crossunder occurs with both MACD and signal lines above zero.
🔶 INSTRUCTIONS
The MACD Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing strategy can be set up by adding it to your TradingView chart and configuring parameters such as the MACD source, trend source, and risk management settings. This strategy is designed to capitalize on short-term price movements by dynamically adjusting position sizes based on predefined risk parameters. Enhance the accuracy of signals by combining this strategy with additional indicators like trend-following or momentum-based tools. Adjust settings to better manage risk and optimize entry and exit points.
🔸Step-by-Step Guidelines
🞘 Setting Up the Strategy
Adding the Strategy to the Chart:
Go to your TradingView chart.
Click on the "Indicators" button at the top.
Search for "MACD Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing" in the indicators list.
Click on the strategy to add it to your chart.
Configuring the Strategy:
Open the strategy settings by clicking on the gear icon next to its name on the chart.
MACD: Select the MACD from the MACD Indicator.
MACD Signal: Select the MACD Signal from the MACD Indicator.
Trend Source: Choose the trend source to determine market direction. If you use the Adaptive MAs (Hurst, CVaR, Fractal) with our settings shown above, choose the MA1 Smoothing Line.
Stop Loss Percentage: Set the stop loss distance from the trend source as a percentage.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Define the desired risk/reward ratio for trades.
Backtesting and Practice:
Backtest the strategy on historical data to understand how it performs in various market environments.
Practice using the strategy on a demo account before implementing it in live trading.
Market Awareness:
Keep an eye on market news and events that might cause extreme price movements. The strategy reacts to price data and might not account for news-driven events that can cause large deviations.
🔶 CONCLUSION
The MACD Trend Trading with Dynamic Position Sizing strategy provides a robust framework for capitalizing on short-term market trends by combining the MACD indicator with dynamic position sizing. This strategy leverages MACD crossovers to identify entry points and utilizes a trend source for directional bias, ensuring trades align with prevailing market conditions. By incorporating dynamic position sizing based on a fixed risk amount, traders can effectively manage risk and adapt to varying market conditions. The strategy's customizable stop-loss and take-profit levels further enhance its risk management capabilities, making it a versatile tool for both trending and volatile markets. With its strategic blend of technical indicators and risk management, the MACD Trend Trading strategy offers traders a comprehensive approach to optimizing trade execution and maximizing potential returns.
Unlock the Power of Seasonality: Monthly Performance StrategyThe Monthly Performance Strategy leverages the power of seasonality—those cyclical patterns that emerge in financial markets at specific times of the year. From tax deadlines to industry-specific events and global holidays, historical data shows that certain months can offer strong opportunities for trading. This strategy was designed to help traders capture those opportunities and take advantage of recurring market patterns through an automated and highly customizable approach.
The Inspiration Behind the Strategy:
This strategy began with the idea that market performance is often influenced by seasonal factors. Historically, certain months outperform others due to a variety of reasons, like earnings reports, holiday shopping, or fiscal year-end events. By identifying these periods, traders can better time their market entries and exits, giving them an advantage over those who solely rely on technical indicators or news events.
The Monthly Performance Strategy was built to take this concept and automate it. Instead of manually analyzing market data for each month, this strategy enables you to select which months you want to focus on and then executes trades based on predefined rules, saving you time and optimizing the performance of your trades.
Key Features:
Customizable Month Selection: The strategy allows traders to choose specific months to test or trade on. You can select any combination of months—for example, January, July, and December—to focus on based on historical trends. Whether you’re targeting the historically strong months like December (often driven by the 'Santa Rally') or analyzing quieter months for low volatility trades, this strategy gives you full control.
Automated Monthly Entries and Exits: The strategy automatically enters a long position on the first day of your selected month(s) and exits the trade at the beginning of the next month. This makes it perfect for traders who want to benefit from seasonal patterns without manually monitoring the market. It ensures precision in entering and exiting trades based on pre-set timeframes.
Re-entry on Stop Loss or Take Profit: One of the standout features of this strategy is its ability to re-enter a trade if a position hits the stop loss (SL) or take profit (TP) level during the selected month. If your trade reaches either a SL or TP before the month ends, the strategy will automatically re-enter a new trade the next trading day. This feature ensures that you capture multiple trading opportunities within the same month, instead of exiting entirely after a successful or unsuccessful trade. Essentially, it keeps your capital working for you throughout the entire month, not just when conditions align perfectly at the beginning.
Built-in Risk Management: Risk management is a vital part of this strategy. It incorporates an Average True Range (ATR)-based stop loss and take profit system. The ATR helps set dynamic levels based on the market’s volatility, ensuring that your stops and targets adjust to changing market conditions. This not only helps limit potential losses but also maximizes profit potential by adapting to market behavior.
Historical Performance Testing: You can backtest this strategy on any period by setting the start year. This allows traders to analyze past market data and optimize their strategy based on historical performance. You can fine-tune which months to trade based on years of data, helping you identify trends and patterns that provide the best trading results.
Versatility Across Asset Classes: While this strategy can be particularly effective for stock market indices and sector rotation, it’s versatile enough to apply to other asset classes like forex, commodities, and even cryptocurrencies. Each asset class may exhibit different seasonal behaviors, allowing you to explore opportunities across various markets with this strategy.
How It Works:
The trader selects which months to test or trade, for example, January, April, and October.
The strategy will automatically open a long position on the first trading day of each selected month.
If the trade hits either the take profit or stop loss within the month, the strategy will close the current position and re-enter a new trade on the next trading day, provided the month has not yet ended. This ensures that the strategy continues to capture any potential gains throughout the month, rather than stopping after one successful trade.
At the start of the next month, the position is closed, and if the next month is also selected, a new trade is initiated following the same process.
Risk Management and Dynamic Adjustments:
Incorporating risk management with this strategy is as easy as turning on the ATR-based system. The strategy will automatically calculate stop loss and take profit levels based on the market’s current volatility, adjusting dynamically to the conditions. This ensures that the risk is controlled while allowing for flexibility in capturing profits during both high and low volatility periods.
Maximizing the Seasonal Edge:
By automating entries and exits based on specific months and combining that with dynamic risk management, the Ultimate Monthly Performance Strategy takes advantage of seasonal patterns without requiring constant monitoring. The added re-entry feature after hitting a stop loss or take profit ensures that you are always in the game, maximizing your chances to capture profitable trades during favorable seasonal periods.
Who Can Benefit from This Strategy?
This strategy is perfect for traders who:
Want to exploit the predictable, recurring patterns that occur during specific months of the year.
Prefer a hands-off, automated trading approach that allows them to focus on other aspects of their portfolio or life.
Seek to manage risk effectively with ATR-based stop losses and take profits that adjust to market conditions.
Appreciate the ability to re-enter trades when a take profit or stop loss is hit within the month, ensuring that they don't miss out on multiple opportunities during a favorable period.
In summary, the Ultimate Monthly Performance Strategy provides traders with a comprehensive tool to capitalize on seasonal trends, optimize their trading opportunities throughout the year, and manage risk effectively. The built-in re-entry system ensures you continue to benefit from the market even after hitting targets within the same month, making it a robust strategy for traders looking to maximize their edge in any market.
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading financial markets involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The Monthly Performance Strategy is designed to help traders identify seasonal trends, but past performance does not guarantee future results. It is important to carefully consider your risk tolerance, financial situation, and trading goals before using any strategy. Always use appropriate risk management and consult with a professional financial advisor if necessary. The use of this strategy does not eliminate the risk of losses, and traders should be prepared for the possibility of losing their entire investment. Be sure to test the strategy on a demo account before applying it in live markets.
Larry Conners SMTP StrategyThe Spent Market Trading Pattern is a strategy developed by Larry Connors, typically used for short-term mean reversion trading. This strategy takes advantage of the exhaustion in market momentum by entering trades when the market is perceived as "spent" after extended trends or extreme moves, expecting a short-term reversal. Connors uses indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) and price action patterns to identify these opportunities.
Key Elements of the Strategy:
Overbought/Oversold Conditions: The strategy looks for extreme overbought or oversold conditions, often indicated by low RSI values (below 30 for oversold and above 70 for overbought).
Mean Reversion: Connors believed that markets, especially in short-term scenarios, tend to revert to the mean after periods of strong momentum. The "spent" market is assumed to have expended its energy, making a reversal likely.
Entry Signals:
In an uptrend, a stock or market index making a significant number of consecutive up days (e.g., 5-7 consecutive days with higher closes) indicates overbought conditions.
In a downtrend, a similar number of consecutive down days indicates oversold conditions.
Reversal Anticipation: Once an extreme in price movement is identified (such as consecutive gains or losses), the strategy places trades anticipating a reversion to the mean, which is usually the 5-day or 10-day moving average.
Exit Points: Trades are exited when prices move back toward their mean or when the extreme conditions dissipate, usually based on RSI or moving average thresholds.
Why the Strategy Works:
Human Psychology: The strategy capitalizes on the fact that markets, in the short term, often behave irrationally due to the emotions of traders—fear and greed lead to overextended moves.
Mean Reversion Tendency: Financial markets often exhibit mean-reverting behavior, where prices temporarily deviate from their historical norms but eventually return. Short-term exhaustion after a strong rally or sell-off offers opportunities for quick profits.
Overextended Moves: Markets that rise or fall too quickly tend to become overextended, as buyers or sellers get exhausted, making reversals more probable. Connors’ approach identifies these moments when the market is "spent" and ripe for a reversal.
Risks of the Spent Market Trading Pattern Strategy:
Trend Continuation: One of the key risks is that the market may not revert as expected and instead continues in the same direction. In trending markets, mean-reversion strategies can suffer because strong trends can last longer than anticipated.
False Signals: The strategy relies heavily on technical indicators like RSI, which can produce false signals in volatile or choppy markets. There can be times when a market appears "spent" but continues in its current direction.
Market Timing: Mean reversion strategies often require precise market timing. If the entry or exit points are mistimed, it can lead to losses, especially in short-term trades where small price movements can significantly impact profitability.
High Transaction Costs: This strategy requires frequent trades, which can lead to higher transaction costs, especially in markets with wide bid-ask spreads or high commissions.
Conclusion:
Larry Connors’ Spent Market Trading Pattern strategy is built on the principle of mean reversion, leveraging the concept that markets tend to revert to a mean after extreme moves. While effective in certain conditions, such as range-bound markets, it carries risks—especially during strong trends—where price momentum may not reverse as quickly as expected.
For a more in-depth explanation, Larry Connors’ books such as "Short-Term Trading Strategies That Work" provide a comprehensive guide to this and other strategies .
Connors VIX Reversal III invented by Dave LandryThis strategy is based on trading signals derived from the behavior of the Volatility Index (VIX) relative to its 10-day moving average. The rules are split into buying and selling conditions:
Buy Conditions:
The VIX low must be above its 10-day moving average.
The VIX must close at least 10% above its 10-day moving average.
If both conditions are met, a buy signal is generated at the market's close.
Sell Conditions:
The VIX high must be below its 10-day moving average.
The VIX must close at least 10% below its 10-day moving average.
If both conditions are met, a sell signal is generated at the market's close.
Exit Conditions:
For long positions, the strategy exits when the VIX trades intraday below its previous day’s 10-day moving average.
For short positions, the strategy exits when the VIX trades intraday above its previous day’s 10-day moving average.
This strategy is primarily a mean-reversion strategy, where the market is expected to revert to a more normal state after the VIX exhibits extreme behavior (i.e., large deviations from its moving average).
About Dave Landry
Dave Landry is a well-known figure in the world of trading, particularly in technical analysis. He is an author, trader, and educator, best known for his work on swing trading strategies. Landry focuses on trend-following and momentum-based techniques, teaching traders how to capitalize on shorter-term price swings in the market. He has written books like "Dave Landry on Swing Trading" and "The Layman's Guide to Trading Stocks," which emphasize practical, actionable trading strategies.
About Connors Research
Connors Research is a financial research firm known for its quantitative research in financial markets. Founded by Larry Connors, the firm specializes in developing high-probability trading systems based on historical market behavior. Connors’ work is widely respected for its data-driven approach, including systems like the RSI(2) strategy, which focuses on short-term mean reversion. The firm also provides trading education and tools for institutional and retail traders alike, emphasizing strategies that can be backtested and quantified.
Risks of the Strategy
While this strategy may appear to offer promising opportunities to exploit extreme VIX movements, it carries several risks:
Market Volatility: The VIX itself is a measure of market volatility, meaning the strategy can be exposed to sudden and unpredictable market swings. This can result in whipsaws, where positions are opened and closed in rapid succession due to sharp reversals in the VIX.
Overfitting: Strategies based on specific conditions like the VIX closing 10% above or below its moving average can be subject to overfitting, meaning they work well in historical tests but may underperform in live markets. This is a common issue in quantitative trading systems that are not adaptable to changing market conditions .
Mean-Reversion Assumption: The core assumption behind this strategy is that markets will revert to their mean after extreme movements. However, during periods of sustained trends (e.g., market crashes or rallies), this assumption may break down, leading to prolonged drawdowns.
Liquidity and Slippage: Depending on the asset being traded (e.g., S&P 500 futures, ETFs), liquidity issues or slippage could occur when executing trades at market close, particularly in volatile conditions. This could increase costs or worsen trade execution.
Scientific Explanation of the Strategy
The VIX is often referred to as the "fear gauge" because it measures the market's expectations of volatility based on options prices. Research has shown that the VIX tends to spike during periods of market stress and revert to lower levels when conditions stabilize . Mean reversion strategies like this one assume that extreme VIX levels are unsustainable in the long run, which aligns with findings from academic literature on volatility and market behavior.
Studies have found that the VIX is inversely correlated with stock market returns, meaning that higher VIX levels often correspond to lower stock prices and vice versa . By using the VIX’s relationship with its 10-day moving average, this strategy aims to capture reversals in market sentiment. The 10% threshold is designed to identify moments when the VIX is significantly deviating from its norm, signaling a potential reversal.
However, academic research also highlights the limitations of relying on the VIX alone for trading signals. The VIX does not predict market direction, only volatility, meaning that it cannot indicate the magnitude of price movements . Furthermore, extreme VIX levels can persist longer than expected, particularly during financial crises.
In conclusion, while the strategy is grounded in well-established financial principles (e.g., mean reversion and the relationship between volatility and market performance), it carries inherent risks and should be used with caution. Backtesting and careful risk management are essential before applying this strategy in live markets.
